Eurasia Insight:
RUSSIAN AIR BASE IN KYRGYZSTAN PREPARES FOR FORMAL OPENING CEREMONY
10/22/03

Opening ceremonies for Russia’s air base in Kyrgyzstan are scheduled for October 23. Kyrgyz officials insist that the Russian base can co-exist with a nearby facility operated by the US-led anti-terrorism coalition. Local political experts, however, expect the US-Russian rivalry for influence in Central Asia to intensify, ultimately forcing Kyrgyzstan to make a geopolitical choice.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Kyrgyz counterpart Askar Akayev are expected to attend the formal opening of the Kant base, situated outside the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Over the past week, Russian military jets, including four MiG-29 fighters, arrived at the base, which will operate under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Kyrgyz officials say the opening of Kant base will markedly enhance security in Central Asia, a region that is facing a steady increase in radical Islamic activity. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Defense Minister Esen Topoyev predicted the presence of the CSTO rapid deployment force would "have a sobering effect on terrorist bandit formations that are planning to destabilize the situation," the Russian Itar-Tass news agency reported October 21.

At the same time, Akayev suggested Kant would develop into "an important foothold or even key element in the CSTO’s collective security system." Russian officials have long expressed the hope that the CSTO, which has struggled to take shape, could blunt the expansion of NATO influence in Central Asia.

Topoyev and other Kyrgyz officials downplay the notion that the presence of Russian and US-led coalition military forces will heighten geopolitical competition in Kyrgyzstan. The Kyrgyz defense minister characterized the bases as complimentary, not competitive in their respective missions. In an interview published in September by the Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Topoyev pointed out that operations at the US-led coalition’s Ganci Air Base, also located outside Bishkek, focused on containing threats to regional security originating in Afghanistan. Topoyev went on to say the CSTO forces at Kant aimed to ensure "the security of the territory and airspace of Kyrgyzstan."

"Attempts to set the two airbases against each other are wrong," Topoyev told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

Many regional political observers believe Kyrgyz leaders are attempting to play Russia and the United States off against each other – to Bishkek’s maximum financial and strategic benefit. Such a strategy may work over the short term, but most observers say it will be impossible for Kyrgyzstan to maintain such a delicate balance for long.

"The attempt by the [Kyrgyz] national leadership to ‘sit between two stools’ of interests – belonging to NATO and to Russia – is obviously doomed to failure," political analyst Anna Shaternikova wrote in the Kazakhstani newspaper Delovaya Nedelya recently. Kyrgyzstan "will sooner or later have to settle on a choice of political priorities."

There are early indications that if Kyrgyz leaders are forced to make a choice, they are more likely to opt for the Kant base and for Russian protection. At present, the rhetoric of Kyrgyz leaders suggests that they feel Russia, more so than the United States, is willing and able to provide the desired level of security and political support, and even economic assistance.

President Akayev told Itar-Tass on October 20 that Kant "clearly shows that Russia’s power is continually growing and it can afford an air base that will protect its friends from any threat." Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Askar Aytmatov touted the air base’s potential economic benefits. "Kant will ... have a positive effect on the development of bilateral trade -- economic, cultural and humanitarian ties," Aytmatov told the Interfax-AVN news agency October 15.

Topoyev, in his Nezavisimaya Gazeta interview, offered perhaps the most insight into Bishkek’s thinking. Kyrgyzstan’s foreign policy priority "was, is and will remain the development of productive multi-vector cooperation within the framework of the CIS, the CSTO and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization," Topoyev said.

Editor’s Note: Alexandr Shablovskiy is a freelance photographer based in Bishkek.