EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Conservatives and Reformists in Iran Prepare for Parliamentary Elections

EURASIA INSIGHT

CONSERVATIVES AND REFORMISTS IN IRAN PREPARE FOR PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
Ardeshir Moaveni 10/22/03

Conservative and reformist forces in Iran are girding for parliamentary elections in February 2004. Iranian hardliners are determined to win back control over the legislature, and thus tighten their grip over the country’s development agenda. Leading reformists, who are reeling from a string of tactical setbacks, appear willing to engage in a confrontational campaign in what may be a last-ditch effort to remain politically relevant.

Conservatives and reformers have engaged in spirited infighting since the last parliamentary election in 2000. In that vote, reformist candidates routed their conservative rivals. Over the past three-plus years, however, hardliners have utilized unelected political and religious institutions, including the Guardian Council, to block the reformists’ momentum. According to one estimate, the Guardian Council rejected more than 90 percent of the legislation adopted by the reformist-dominated parliament. The political gridlock left many Iranians disillusioned. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Conservatives appear intent on emulating their success in Iran’s February 28 local elections. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Taking advantage of widespread voter apathy � Tehran, for example, saw only 12 percent turnout -- the conservatives relied on their relatively small but hardcore base of popular support to register landslide victories in the municipal votes around the country. Some experts estimate conservatives can rely on the unflinching support of roughly 15 percent of the electorate.

Political observers expect conservatives to field a slate full of relative political unknowns. Repeating the experience of the local election campaign, the conservative candidates would focus on non-partisan issues. According to the Shargh, daily, the conservatives want to "out-reform" the reformists during the campaign. "To do so ... they [conservatives must first disqualify all the well-known and high profile reformist candidates," the Shargh commentary said. "After that, they would go ahead and institute reforms of their own in order to be able to deal with the myriad domestic and international problems facing the country."

In seeking to exclude the highest-profile reformist political figures from the campaign, conservatives can again turn to the Guardian Council, which is charged with vetting all candidates. In 2000, the Guardian Council approved the candidacies of hundreds of reformist candidates. This year, conservatives indicate that the council will follow much more stringent standards in approving candidates. Thousands of officials and investigators are reportedly being trained to conduct thorough background checks.
The reformist-dominated Interior Ministry is taking steps to counter the ability of the Guardian Council to influence the pool of parliamentary contenders. In August, for example, the ministry issued a directive to state governors prohibiting them from cooperating with oversight committees established by the Guardian Council.

Another instrument at the disposal of conservatives in the Basij Militia. Hundreds of thousands militia members would be available to act as campaign agitators for the conservative cause. [For background, see the Eurasia Insight archives].

Meanwhile, reformists have yet to forge a united approach to the 2004 parliamentary vote. Iran’s premier reformist political movement, the Islamic Iran Participation Front (IIPF), appeared to made a radical departure from traditional politics during its congress on October 20. For the first time in Islamic Republic’s 24-year history, an official party publicly questioned the absolute powers of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

In addition, the IIPF tentatively invited all groups, including those outside the power structure, who "believe in principles of democracy" to join forces. For all the drama of these gestures, which followed a two-day fast expressing solidarity with imprisoned activists, they may indicate that the largest reformist movement in Iran considers itself in a desperate position. Few observers believe the IIPF’s new combative stance will succeed in overcoming the prevalent political apathy among the electorate. [For background information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Other reformist forces, including the Assembly of the Combatant Clergy, appear reluctant to follow the IIPF’s lead. Many assembly members say that the IIPF’s radicalism has exacerbated the reformists’ political problems. Some also feel that, given the geopolitical uncertainty caused by the US-led occupation of neighboring Iraq, the domestic dispute over reforms should be set aside and all Iranian political forces should concentrate on defending the country from possible external threats.

Editor�s Note: Ardeshir Moaveni is the pseudonym for an Iranian journalist.

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