Intra-Governmental Tension Marks Run-Up to Rose Revolution Anniversary in Georgia

As the first anniversary of Georgia's Rose Revolution nears, reports of a deepening rift in the country's governing coalition are surfacing. The debate over Georgia's 2005 state budget is serving as the catalyst for speculation about tension within the highest levels of government.

Since it came to power in November 2003, the unity of the reform coalition -- comprising President Mikheil Saakashvili, Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania and Parliament Speaker Nino Burjanadze -- has often been perceived as tenuous. The triumvirate has consistently dismissed the idea of internal tension. Yet, it is becoming increasingly difficult to take such dismissals at face value amid the current budget bickering.

Terming the government's draft budget "incomplete," parliamentarians on October 18 returned the document for further work, criticizing the government for not setting aside sufficient funds for military expenditures, and for attempting to delay financial aid payments to veterans. MPs also complained about a lack of spending details contained in the draft budget. Burjanadze has been outspoken in her criticism of the draft, warning the government that Georgia's parliament will reject the budget unless substantial changes are made. Under constitutional amendments passed earlier this year, Saakashvili can disband parliament if it fails to pass the government's budget after three successive votes.

On October 18, Burjanadze stated that the possibility of the dissolution of parliament would not intimidate sitting MPs into backing a flawed budget. "[T]he parliament will not be scared to tell the truth to the face of the government," the Rustavi-2 television channel reported Burjanadze as saying.

Burjanadze appears to be on a collision course with Zhvania. At an October 20 cabinet meeting, Zhvania told the government that though he was willing to meet with Burjanadze, or hold televised debates to air criticisms of the draft, he would "not allow hidden political intrigues over the budget," the Civil Georgia web site reported. The government has until November 1 to consider comments by parliament's Finance and Budget Committee before resubmitting the $1-billion budget for a vote.

In addition to parliamentary criticism, some cabinet members have characterized the draft budget as inadequate. Defense Minister Giorgi Baramidze told reporters on October 19 that the $65 million allocated in the draft for military spending would not meet the armed forces' needs. "Georgia must be ready for military action if it wants peace, while merely having soldiers fed and provided with boots is not enough for that," Interfax reported Baramidze as saying. MPs have urged the government to increase total military expenditures to $85.7 million.

Saakashvili has portrayed the differences over the budget as part of a "natural" process. "It is very good if they [government officials and MPs] argue," Saakashvili told reporters in Tbilisi recently. "One thing I know for sure is that, eventually, they will come to agreement."

Developments in recent months undermine Saakashvili's reassuring remarks.

Both the executive and legislative branches have been buffeted by political turbulence. On the executive side, many observers interpreted a reshuffle of 10 cabinet positions this June as an attempt to patch over differences between Saakashvili and Zhvania. One report published by the daily newspaper Akhali Taoba described heated arguments between the president and prime minister behind closed doors.

In parliament, bitter disputes among members of the National Movement-Democrats coalition over a revised tax code, broadcasting law and education bill have marked recent parliamentary sessions. On October 12, parliamentarians Giga Bukia, Bidzina Gujabidze and Giorgi Tsanava announced that they would leave the National Movement-Democrats majority after parliament refused to open an investigation into the death of Georgia's first president, Zviad Gamsakhurdia. Their departure brings to 10 the total number of parliamentarians who have abandoned the majority faction since May.

All the bickering prompted an October 8 editorial in The Messenger, an English-language newspaper, that speculated on how long the pact between Saakashvili's National Movement and the Burjanadze-Democrats headed by the parliamentary speaker and Zhvania could last.

If the infighting escalates, some observers believe Burjanadze, who was once presented as a possible presidential contender, may be the member of the triumvirate that comes under the most pressure.

To date, Burjanadze has routinely served as the triumvirate's top diplomatic troubleshooter. Most recently, she was designated to present Georgia's outstanding issues with Russia on Abkhazia and South Ossetia during an October 7 debate at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. As vice-chairperson of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Parliamentary Assembly, Burjanadze has also fronted for the Saakashvili administration on attempts to increase the presence of OSCE monitors along the Georgian-Russian border, and to increase economic cooperation with the European Union.

Despite her high diplomatic profile, some media outlets speculate that Burjanadze's influence may be waning. Such views are largely based on a recent decision to make the parliamentary speaker a non-voting member of Georgia's National Security Council, a consultative body that includes the so-called "power" ministers of defense, foreign affairs, and interior affairs. Prime Minister Zhvania is also a full, voting member of the council.

As with earlier reports of possible power struggles inside the triumvirate, Burjanadze denied that the Security Council decision diminishes her authority. In remarks to the Tbilisi newspaper Resonansi on October 13, Burjanadze stressed that the move "is nothing tragic." The Georgian constitution, she said, prevents the president from naming the leader of parliament to the council, citing a need to preserve the separation between government's legislative and executive branches. "Such a state of affairs exists in every normal country. The formula is correct and quite admissible," Resonansi quoted Burjanadze as saying.

In an October 18 interview with the Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Burjanadze followed up on those comments, insisting that there have never been serious ruptures within the coalition. Echoing statements made in April to Tbilisi's American Chamber of Commerce that the trio's "very emotional" discussions were intended to sound decisions, Burjanadze emphasized that predictions of a rupture "had come to nothing" and stressed that she had no regrets over not running for president herself in January 2004. "I consider that Georgia now needs a decisive president like Mikheil Saakashvili," she said.