Georgia: President Calls for Early Elections

Fresh from an overwhelming victory in this month's local elections, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili has proposed pushing up the date of the country's presidential vote to 2008. Opposition leaders are accusing the president of attempting to hasten the consolidation of his personal authority.

According to Saakashvili, rescheduling the presidential elections to coincide with planned parliamentary elections in the spring of 2008 is the easiest way to normalize the election process in Georgia. "I believe that holding elections one year after the other is linked to a lot of problems in Georgia," the president said in an October 19 press conference broadcast on Georgian television. "We can hold both elections together, and let the people decide in 2008 . . . . This is instead of holding them in consecutive years, instead of having continuous dithering and all the expense and organizational problems associated with that."

The president's proposal would require an amendment to the country's constitution. The change would slice off eight months from Saakashvili's first term in office. Presidential elections are currently scheduled for April 2009.

Shota Tarkhnishvili, chief of staff of parliament's Committee on Legal Issues, told EurasiaNet that the legislature expects to receive the president's proposed constitutional amendment this week. Parliament will consider the proposal in one month's time as part of a package of proposed amendments, Committee Deputy Chairperson Nino Kalandadze told the Prime News agency.

But opposition members maintain that Saakashvili's initiative is more about securing his own power than rationalizing Georgia's hurly-burly election campaigns. "In our opinion, this is an attempt to usurp power, caused by President Saakashvili's many fears," Republican Party leader Davit Usupashvili said during a press conference on October 20. "This initiative goes beyond even [Belarusian President Aleksandr] Lukashenko's repertoire. It is borrowed from [Turkmen President Saparmyrat Nyyazow] Turkmenbashi's repertoire, because it is aimed at abandoning democratic processes in Georgia altogether." Usupashvili claimed that Saakashvili is buckling under the combined pressure of the "growing popularity and potential" of the country's opposition parties and a rising level of voter dissatisfaction.

The proposal is not the first time the government has called for early elections. In late August 2006, the decision to move up nationwide local elections to October 5 prompted an outcry from opposition parties about the abbreviated campaign time. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive.] The Saakashvili-led National Movement won a clear majority of votes at the polls. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Though this proposed presidential election change comes with considerably greater advance notice, one political scientist argues that the initiative could be the result of political calculation. The National Movement Party will face increased competition in the 2008 parliamentary elections as the number of parliamentary seats shrinks from 235 to 150, noted Malkhaz Matsaberidze, a professor of political science at Tbilisi State University. Consequently, Saakashvili might be tempted to use his currently high ratings to help the National Movement maintain its majority in the restructured parliament, Matsaberidze said.

(In a separate development, one opposition group, the New Rights Party, announced on October 23 that it would suspend its seven-month boycott of parliament. It joins two other opposition parties, the Republican and Conservative Parties, who earlier announced plans to return to parliament.)

National Movement Party members have dismissed opposition objections, and have emphasized that Saakashvili is volunteering to reduce his own term by eight months. Such a move is not the approach of an aspiring despot, noted Parliamentary Speaker Nino Burjanadze, who has reportedly already discussed the change with Saakashvili.

"[T]his is an idea really worth thinking about," she said in an October 20 statement to reporters during an official trip to Madrid. "[T]he president's announcement that the presidential election would be brought forward is, of course, a compromise. The president agrees to cut his term in order to transform the permanent process of elections into a more businesslike atmosphere in the country."

Other experts argue that the decision could reflect the tense relations between Georgia and Russia, and uncertainties about long-term support from the international community. "The main point is he wants to protect his position," said Tina Gogueliani, an analyst in the political studies unit at the International Center on Conflict & Negotiation in Tbilisi. "We don't know how the international context will develop over the next two years."

Gogueliani noted that while the proposed election change by itself is not a danger to Georgia's developing democracy, it does set a bad precedent. "I don't think it is a big challenge to have it eight months before or later from the point of view of democracy," she said. "But the point is he could have [announced it] before, instead of basing [his decision] on the day-by-day situation [in the country]."

Matsaberidze, the Tbilisi university professor, also did not rule out suggestions that Saakashvili's decision could be linked to international politics. The Georgian president could be anxious to cement his position prior to the 2008 US presidential elections, he said. If a new US president shows less interest in Georgia and its government, Matsaberidze noted, Saakashvili could face a bigger challenge in the polls. "In 2008 President George W. Bush will still be the president in America, Georgia's strongest ally," he said. "A change in power could make the election [in 2009] more difficult [for Saakashvili.]"