Tajik President Seemingly Keen to Foster Competitive Presidential Election

The decision of Tajikistan's main opposition parties not to field candidates for the country's presidential election has rendered the outcome of the November 6 vote a foregone conclusion. Even so, the election campaign is proving unusual because President Imomali Rahmonov, the man virtually assured of winning re-election, seems to be going to great lengths to create the appearance of a competitive vote.

Given Rahmonov's existing stranglehold on power, the leaders of two of Tajikistan's main opposition parties – the Islamic Renaissance Party (IRP) and the Democratic Party of Tajikistan and Socialist Party – opted not to challenge the president. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Explaining the IRP's decision not to nominate a presidential candidate, the party's new leader, Muhidden Kabiri, cited a desire not to damage Tajikistan's international reputation. The IRP is Central Asia's only officially recognized religious party. Although its platform is moderate, Kabiri said in late September that the party preferred to maintain a low profile because the region is grappling to contain Islamic radicalism. "We didn't want to place our country and our party at the front line of criticism that Islamic movements are very active here," Kabiri told the Tajik Service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. "We have once again sacrificed our rights so as not to block possible aid to Tajikistan." Meanwhile, the Democrats have been debilitated by internal strife and are ill-positioned to conduct a presidential campaign.

As a result, Rahmonov is left to face a group of political unknowns in the election. The campaign itself has generated little excitement, and there are concerns in governing-party circles that widespread apathy will prompt many would-be voters to stay at home on election day. It's far from an ideal situation for a president who aspires to raise his international profile. Accordingly, Rahmonov in recent weeks has appeared eager to foster interest in the campaign. In comments broadcast on Tajik television October 23, Rahmonov urged a heavy turnout. "Tajikistan's status in the world depends on the results of this election," he said.

At the outset of the campaign season, only three candidates, including Rahmonov, had been officially registered to run. Then, on October 11, two additional candidates were registered -- Abdukhalim Gafarov, the leader of a renegade wing of the Socialist Party, and the Agrarian Party's Amir Karakulov – bringing to five the total number of those seeking the presidency.

Perhaps the oddest development in the campaign so far occurred on October 12, when the Democratic Party published two different newspapers with the same name – Adolat. The first Adolat edition was published by the Democratic Party wing headed by the jailed Mahmadruzi Iskandarov, who many international human rights groups consider to be a political prisoner. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The other Adolat edition was published by the "recently renewed" faction headed by Masud Sobirov.

In late September, the Tajik Justice Ministry recognized Sobirov as the Democrats' rightful leader. The official recognition came after his followers convened a rump party congress to proclaim Sobirov as the party's leader. On October 2, commenting on the Justice Ministry's move, Rakhmatullo Valiev, an Iskandarov ally and the former acting chairman of the party, told local media outlets that "someone from