EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Pressure Builds on Anti-Terrorism Alliance

EURASIA INSIGHT

PRESSURE BUILDS ON ANTI-TERRORISM ALLIANCE
Ahmed Rashid 10/24/01

Two prominent Pashtun commanders, Abdul Haq and Hamid Karzai, who are both loyal to Afghanistan’s former King Mohammed Zahir Shah, have entered southern Afghanistan from Pakistan to raise a rebellion against the Taliban. Their attempt to open a "southern front" against the Taliban ultimately aims to strengthen the Pashtun component of any future government. Their action coincided with an October 24 meeting of 800 Afghan Pashtun exiles in Peshawar that seeks to establish a political counterweight to the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, which is made up of mainly Tajiks and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan.

The two developments underscore the growing centrifugal pressure building on the anti-terrorism alliance. The diverging interests of key players in the anti-terrorism campaign are hampering efforts to forge a broad political coalition that could govern Afghanistan after the ouster of the Taliban.

Factionalism and deep mistrust among Afghan Pashtun leaders continues to prevent the formation of a common Afghan front against the Taliban. The failure of Pashtun tribes to unite in opposition to the Taliban, which also draw support from Pashtuns, could hinder the US-led offensive against the Taliban leadership and Osama bin Laden. In 17 days of intense US bombing not a single Afghan city has fallen to the anti-Taliban alliance, nor has there been a single defection of a prominent Taliban leader.

The meeting of more than 800 Afghan exiles in Peshawar took place under the auspices of moderate spiritual leader Pir Sayed Ahmad Gailani. He called for the cessation of US bombing of Afghanistan, and the establishment of a transitional government of technocrats under the guidance of the country’s former monarch, Mohammed Zahir Shah. Senior aides to Zahir Shah, who lives in exile in Rome, said the meeting was not part of the king’s own efforts to establish a broad governing coalition. The aides added that Pakistan financed and organized the meeting.

"Afghanistan dangles between life and death, efforts should be made to stop the military operations and start work on the reconstruction of the country as soon as possible," Gailani told the assembled "white beards," or tribal elders. The gathering represented tribal and clan leaders from the Pashtun ethnic group, but had no representation from Zahir Shah’s recently formed 120-man Supreme Council for the Unity of Afghanistan. There were no Northern Alliance representatives at the Peshawar gathering either.

Gailani told the gathering that during his mid-October talks with Zahir Shah in Rome he emphasized the need for "the formation of a leadership council comprising those personalities who enjoy the support of the majority of Afghans�. and the leadership council will elect one of its members as chairman." Gailani said he was certain that Zahir Shah would be elected chairman.

In his 10-minute speech Gailani did not mention that Zahir Shah has already created a 120-man Supreme Council, on which the Northern Alliance enjoys substantial representation. The formation of the council is seen as the first step towards calling for a Loya Jirga or tribal council which would choose a new government. Gailani also made no reference to a future role for or any participation of the Northern Alliance in the political process.

"Gailani’s effort is being backed by Pakistan to create an alternative to our efforts and to bypass the Northern Alliance," said a senior aide to Zahir Shah in Rome. "The Americans are swallowing this because they depend on Pakistan for their military campaign against the Taliban."

"Everyone is using the King’s name to gain legitimacy because the King is the most popular man in Afghanistan, but there is only one Loya Jirga process," said another Zahir Shah supporter in Quetta, Pakistan.

Pakistani officials insist that their support for Gailani is not motivated by a desire to create an alternative to the king’s initiative. They say they want to galvanize Pashtuns, who are presently leaderless and directionless. Islamabad is also anxious to prevent the Northern Alliance from dominating the next Afghan government. Those anxieties have increased in recent days, as US jets have started to offer close-air support for Northern Alliance military units near Mazar-i-Sharif and at the approaches to Kabul.

The factionalism among Pashtun tribal leaders is hampering effective resistance to the Taliban in southern Afghanistan. Nevertheless, commanders loyal to the King are now taking matters into their own hands. On October 20, after spending a month in Peshawar talking to Pashtun tribal chiefs, Abdul Haq crossed the border into eastern Afghanistan close to the city of Jalalabad with 100 armed men. He is determined to raise the standard of rebellion against the Taliban amongst the eastern Pashtun tribes.

Haq is a legendary commander from the 1979-89 Afghan war against the Soviet Union � during which he commanded the Mujaheddin’s Kabul front and lost his right foot after stepping on a mine. He is trying to persuade a group of key commanders from the Soviet war, many of whom subsequently joined the Taliban, to now join his rebellion.

In the south, Hamid Karzai � a chief of the Popalzai tribe which inhabits the Kandahar region, where Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar and Osama bin Laden are based � left Quetta last week with another group of heavily armed men and entered southern Afghanistan. Both Haq and Karzai have said in recent weeks that they will try to win over Pashtun chiefs and individual Taliban moderates to the idea of a Loya Jirga, and they will fight the Taliban if they meet resistance.

The two men seek to foster an anti-Taliban uprising in the Pashtun belt of southern Afghanistan. An uprising would potentially assist the US-led military campaign, as well as strengthen the Loya Jirga process. Senior aides to both commanders remain deeply critical of the anti-terrorism alliance for failing to support the efforts to foment the uprising in southern Afghanistan. "We have not even got satellite phones inside Afghanistan, let alone arms and money for food � we are on our own," said the Quetta-based Zahir Shah supporter.

The United States and Great Britain appear reluctant to support a Pashtun uprising out of concern that it would rile Pakistani leaders. US strategic planners deem Pakistan’s support for the anti-terrorism campaign crucial for success. Islamabad, which has close ties with the Taliban, is undertaking its own efforts to promote the defection of Taliban leaders, who could then join the Loya Jirga process. Pakistani leaders figure Taliban defectors would help promote Pakistani security interests, countering Northern Alliance influence over Afghanistan’s post-war development.

So far, however, Pakistani intelligence efforts to entice Taliban defections have failed. Not a single prominent Taliban leader has yet defected. In mid October, Pakistan summoned Jalaluddin Haqqani, the Taliban Minister of Frontier Affairs to Islamabad for secret talks, but Haqqani returned home to issue defiant statements against the US campaign and in favor of Mullah Omar.

Western diplomats suggest the United States is in a quandary because, while Pakistan is not delivering on its promise of creating Taliban defections, Washington is also unwilling to allow the Northern Alliance to capture Kabul. Pakistan has said it would not tolerate a Northern Alliance seizure of Kabul.

President Pervez Musharraf has forcefully told the United States that Pakistan would resist US support for the Northern Alliance. The Pakistani leader also expressed opposition to a major Northern Alliance role in any future government in Kabul "The UF [Northern Alliance] has neither the political capacity, nor the military capacity to govern Afghanistan," Musharraf told Pakistan television on October 23.

Musharraf’s tough ultimatum has rankled Russia, Iran, India and the Central Asian states, all of which have aided the Northern Alliance military effort. These countries also refuse to sanction a role for moderate Taliban leaders in any future government in Kabul. The growing gap between Pakistan and its regional rivals is undermining the US-led alliance. The divisions among Afghans are being mirrored by divisions within the anti-terrorism alliance that have the potential to greatly complicate the anti-terrorism campaign.

Editor�s Note: Ahmed Rashid is a journalist and author of the book "Taliban: Militant Islam and Fundamentalism in Central Asia."

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