Iran has sent mixed signals on a European Union proposal, under which Tehran would abandon efforts to develop nuclear weapons in return for greater cooperation in the nuclear-energy sphere and expanded trade opportunities. Analysts in Tehran believe that Iranian officials are waiting to see the results of the US presidential election on November 2 before formulating a response.
The EU's Big Three Britain, France and Germany have given Iran until November 25 to accept their proposal, which some analysts have characterized as a combination of "carrots and sticks." The International Atomic Energy Agency earlier set a November 25 deadline for Iran to resolve outstanding issues concerning Tehran's nuclear research efforts. Iranian officials insist that the country's nuclear program is designed solely to meet civilian-sector needs. The EU and the United States, however, remain concerned that Iran seeks to develop nuclear weapons. [For additional information, see the Eurasia Insight archive].
The EU Three deal hinges on Iran's agreement to give up efforts to develop a fuel cycle activities that are often associated with efforts to produce weapons-grade nuclear components. In return for the "indefinite suspension" of fuel-enrichment plans, the EU would provide far-ranging assistance to promote the recovery of Iran's sclerotic economy. The deal was discussed during an October 21 meeting between EU representatives and Iranian officials. An expert familiar with those talks told EurasiaNet that EU aid would focus on the civil aviation, agricultural, domestic transport and biotechnology sectors. Brussels also would support Iranian efforts to join the World Trade Organization, and would provide technology for monitoring seismic trends and forecasting earthquakes.
In addition, the Europeans would assist Iran in developing its nuclear energy potential, providing technology that would enable Tehran build "light-water" reactors, and ensuring access to nuclear fuel to make those reactors run. Conversely, Iran would be required to abandon hopes of building a "heavy-water" reactor, which can be used to accelerate the process of developing weapons-grade nuclear fuel.
An Iranian Foreign Ministry representative initially characterized the proposal as "unbalanced." But on October 25, government spokesman Abdollah Ramezanzadeh dismissed Western reports that Iran had rejected the EU offer. Ramezanzadeh stressed that negotiations would continue, adding that a compromise was "achievable," the official IRNA news agency reported.
"In two-sided negotiations, there are always suggestions that are partly acceptable and partly not. ... We acknowledge the international community's concerns about nuclear weapons proliferation, but we also feel obliged not to concede our legitimate right [to fuel-cycle development]," Ramezanzadeh said.
If Iran does not budge on the EU's fundamental fuel-cycle demand, Brussels is prepared to endorse a series of punitive measures. During the October 21 meeting, EU representatives presented Iranian authorities with a detailed plan that provided for "incremental" punishment. The step-by-step penalty plan would culminate in United Nations Security Council action to tighten economic sanctions against Tehran.
There are signs that Tehran has already factored potential Security Council sanctions into its decision-making calculus. The Financial Times on October 25 quoted Hossein Mousavian, a member of Iran's National Security Council, as saying Tehran is no longer afraid of possible Security Council censure.
Ramezanzadeh, the government spokesman, also sounded a defiant note. "The international community knows well that threats against Iran are not effective, and we hope our negotiating partners will never resort to forceful language," IRNA quoted him as saying.
The new conservative majority that has taken control of Iran's political establishment feels that international sanctions could provide domestic political benefits, helping to rally Iranians around the hardliner banner, some analysts maintain.
Other experts familiar with Iran's nuclear program believe that Tehran is unlikely to abandon fuel-cycle development efforts, saying the country's security strategy counts on possession of a nuclear shield. Iranian officials would also be reluctant to waste the considerable resources in terms of both money and manpower -- expended so far on its nuclear program, the experts suggest.
The Iranian political establishment maintains that the country's nuclear program meets the research terms as outlined in the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The pact allows countries to enrich uranium and to obtain nuclear technology from outside sources. Iran's nuclear ambitions appear to be driven in part by lingering concern that the Bush administration, should it secure re-election in the presidential vote November 2, might revive attempts to promote "regime change" in Iran. Some experts say US hostility dampens Iran's desire to compromise on the nuclear issue. The concern in Tehran is that compromise with the EU could be interpreted in Washington as a sign of weakness that invites aggressive action.
"If we accept their [EU] demands, the United States would exert more and more pressure on us," the Iran-based Fars news agency quoted political scientist Ghadir Abyaneh as saying. "Their [US officials'] ultimate goal is nothing but the complete destruction of the Islamic republic."
Some Iranian experts believe that Iran is stalling on a response until after the US presidential vote, apparently in the belief that a possible change in American administrations could be beneficial for Tehran. Others, citing John Kerry's public criticism of Iran, doubt that US policy towards Tehran would ease significantly in the event the democratic challenger captures the White House. A few observers suggest that Tehran may be delaying a response while probing for ways to drive a wedge between the EU and United States on the Iranian nuclear issue.
David Albright, president of the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security, said that Iran "would be crazy to turn down" the EU offer. If "Iran signs on to this [the EU deal], there would be tremendous pressure on the US administration to follow the wishes of the world community, and not try to change the regime in Iran."
Editor's note:
Ardeshir Moaveni is a freelance journalist specializing in Iranian politics.
