EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - United States Urges Moderation as Azerbaijan's Parliamentary Election Approaches

EURASIA INSIGHT

UNITED STATES URGES MODERATION AS AZERBAIJAN’S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION APPROACHES
Rovshan Ismayilov 10/26/05

Amid Azerbaijan’s political tension, which in recent weeks has resulted in clashes between authorities and opposition supporters, US Ambassador Reno Harnish has emerged as perhaps the foremost advocate of moderation.

As the US envoy, Harnish’s statements and actions are scrutinized by Azerbaijani politicians and media, and he is widely perceived to be among the most influential political actors in Baku. For example, after Harnish’s call for talks brought an unsanctioned opposition rally in Baku to a halt on September 25, one Azerbaijani news agency referred to him as "the real master of the pre-election situation." [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Two days later, an analysis published by the Turan news agency said that Harnish is able to both "stop the police machinery" and "curb the revolution[ary] spirit of the opposition. ... In one day he can stop a situation, or let the conflicting parties tear each other apart."

Ultimately, the dialogue proposed by Harnish, and mediated by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), could not produce political accord between the Azerbaijani opposition and the government. The opposition proceeded with unauthorized rallies in the city center, and police responded with increasing force. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Embassy statements have urged authorities to respect the democratic principle of freedom of assembly, and have called on all parties to eschew violence.

The United States has exerted steady pressure on the Azerbaijani government to encourage a free and fair vote. During an October 19-20 visit to Baku, Assistant US Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia Daniel Fried stressed Washington’s concerns about the chances for a democratic parliamentary election in the wake of exiled opposition leader Rasul Guliyev’s inability to return to Azerbaijan, and the arrests of cabinet ministers and senior government officials charged with plotting a coup. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

An October 21 statement by the US Senate urged the Azerbaijani government to hold "orderly, peaceful and free and fair elections" to ensure Azerbaijan’s "long-term growth and stability." That statement followed on the heels of an OSCE declaration that expressed "major concern" about the election process in the oil-rich Caspian Sea state. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The Bush administration has attempted to use positive reinforcement as it coaxes the Azerbaijani government to open up the political system. In an October 18 letter marking Azerbaijan’s independence, US President George W. Bush told his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, that Washington welcomed the Azerbaijani government’s "commitment to a free and fair election, which is essential to sustaining a strong partnership between our two countries."

Aliyev’s administration appears to be making efforts to show that it is listening. On October 25, Aliyev ordered that voters’ fingers be inked to prevent multiple voting, and that foreign-funded non-governmental organizations be allowed to monitor the November 6 election.

The international community has long pushed Azerbaijan to adopt both measures. At an October 13 press conference in Baku, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) Monitoring Committee announced that the election campaign fell short of international standards. Inking voters’ fingers to avoid duplicate voting, showing greater tolerance for protests, and permitting opposition demonstrations in central Baku were among the changes advocated by PACE for free and fair elections.

Azerbaijan’s main opposition parties say Washington’s stance on Azerbaijan’s political development has significantly changed since October 2003, when President Aliyev was elected in a vote internationally condemned as flawed. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. "The United States made conclusions from what happened after the 2003 elections and changed its attitude about the problems of democracy in Azerbaijan," Musavat Party spokesperson Mehman Javadoglu said. "Now the statements of the US administration are targeted. "

The US stance is "more balanced" in comparison with 2003 "when the US openly supported [now President] Ilham Aliyev," asserted another political analyst, Ilgar Mammadov, who is running for parliament: "The United States is . . . interested in seeing the real situation, and the real popularity of political forces, and parliament being formed on the basis of a real division of powers."

Rasim Musabekov, another political expert who is running for parliament as an independent candidate, agrees with Mammadov’s assessment. Musabekov argues that Washington stood by Ilham Aliyev to smooth the transition of power from his late father, Heidar Aliyev. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. At present, the situation in Azerbaijan warrants a more categorical position, Musabekov suggested. "Ilham Aliyev was the best choice for that time. Now the country has already made this transition and needs real reforms," he said. "Therefore, the United States has increased pressure on the Azerbaijani authorities to make them more moderate."

Despite the numerous calls for a free-and-fair vote, a declining number of Azerbaijani political experts believe that the international community will be able to help guarantee a clean election, according to a survey of political observers run by Turan news agency. While in June 2005, 77.5 percent of the 50 experts interviewed said that the activity of foreign countries and international organizations would be decisive for holding free and fair elections, by September, that number had decreased to 60.6 percent.

Opposition leaders have become regular visitors to Washington this election year: Musavat Party leader Isa Gambar has visited three times since January; Popular Front Party leader Ali Kerimli twice, and Liberal Party of Azerbaijan leader Lala Shovket once. Despite these missions, neither Mammadov nor Musabekov believes the United States is intent on promoting political change in Baku. "The United States does not support the idea of government change. They just demand more reforms and more democracy from the current government," Musabekov said.

Harnish has categorically rejected the notion that the United States wants Azerbaijan to experience the "color revolution" phenomenon, following Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan down the regime-change path. "[T]he US does not support any concrete leaders or [political] parties. The Azerbaijani people themselves must choose their own leader. The aim of the US is the development of democracy in Azerbaijan," Harnish said in a September 24 interview with the pro-opposition weekly Bakinskiye Vedomosti.

The ambassador also has disputed opposition allegations that the election’s results are pre-determined. "It is wrong to allege at this moment that the election will be falsified," Harnish said at a news conference on October 13.

Some pro-opposition observers point to President Aliyev’s failure to secure an official invitation to Washington since his election in 2003 as a sign that the White House still prefers to keep the Azerbaijani leader at arm’s length, but government representatives stress that Baku and Washington share a similar outlook on democracy. The Azerbaijani government, said Elin Suleymanov, head of the analytical section for the Azerbaijani presidential administration’s international department, "welcomes any support in terms of conducting free and fair elections in Azerbaijan. This is our goal, too. Since the US administration supports the process, but not certain candidates or political parties, it corresponds to our expectations."

Concluded Suleymanov: "The Azerbaijani government will be the first to be unhappy if the elections are not fair."

Editor�s Note: Rovshan Ismailov is freelance journalist based in Baku.

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