Moscow Hostage Crisis Causes Georgia to Worry About Russian Wrath

Russian leaders have yet to provide specifics on new anti-terrorism measures in the wake of the Moscow hostage crisis. Georgian officials, however, are convinced that Russia will lash out, and they worry that Tbilisi is potentially among the first targets of Russia's wrath.

Russian President Vladimir Putin hailed the outcome of the hostage crisis, in which at least 117 of the hostages perished during the rescue operation two days earlier. Roughly 750 hostages emerged from the ordeal alive, although 45 remain in intensive care as a result of exposure to an unidentified gas used by Russian security forces in the attack. "We managed to do the near-impossible – save the lives of hundreds," Putin said in a televised address. "We proved it is impossible to bring Russia to its knees."

Putin vowed October 28 that the hostage incident will strengthen Russia's resolve as it wages an anti-terrorism campaign against Chechen separatists. The president ordered Russia's General Staff "to review plans of military deployment" to accommodate possible new anti-terror operations. Without naming a specific person or place, Putin hinted that such operations could take place beyond Russia's borders. Russia will respond "in all places where terrorists and their ideological and financial backers are based," Putin was quoted as saying by the RIA news agency.

Many in Tbilisi are interpreting Putin's belligerent stance as an indictment of Georgia. The Kremlin has long complained about Chechen rebel activity in Georgia's Pankisi Gorge region. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives]. Accordingly, Georgian leaders have taken swift action to express support for Putin's handling of the hostage crisis. Officials in Tbilisi have also offered to step up cooperation with Moscow – all in the hope of limiting Russian retaliation.

"I am certain they [Russian leaders] had no other option," Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze told Georgian television following a telephone discussion with Putin on October 26. Meanwhile, Deputy Security Minister Irakli Alasania praised the "professionalism" of the Russian security troops involved in hostage-freeing operation, the Kavkasia Press news agency reported.

From the start of the crisis, Georgian officials forcefully condemned the Chechen hostage takers, realizing that months of Georgian-Russian tension over the presence of Chechens in the Pankisi Gorge had left bilateral relations in a volatile state. In perhaps the starkest sign of Tbilisi's wanting to reassure Moscow, deputy speaker of the Georgian parliament Vakhtang Rcheushvili reportedly told the visiting deputy speaker of Russia's Federation Council Valery Goreglyad on October 25 that members of Georgian parliament were ready to fly to Moscow "to replace the hostages."

Georgia is not the only country in the Caucasus that is concerned about possible repercussions connected with the hostage crisis: authorities in Azerbaijan have quietly closed the Chechen information office in Baku, according to some reports.

Prior to the hostage incident, military and political leaders in Moscow, including Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, had described Georgia as a "nest" of terrorism. Georgian-Russian relations hit a low point in early September, when Putin issued an ultimatum calling on Tbilisi to take immediate steps to bolster security in the Pankisi or face unilateral Russian military action in the region. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In the months leading up to Putin's September ultimatum, Georgia had repeatedly rebuffed Russian requests to conduct joint "security" operations on Georgian territory. The Georgian leadership had also resisted Moscow's demand that suspected Chechen terrorists in Georgian custody be extradited. In early October, however, Georgia softened its position – agreeing to joint border patrols and extraditing five of 13 suspected Chechens. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives].

Amidst the fallout from the hostage crisis, Russia is expected to exert new pressure on Georgia. Even before the start of the hostage crisis, a Russian Interior Ministry mission traveled to Tbilisi and delivered a list of alleged criminals supposedly in hiding in Georgia and wanted by Moscow. In addition, Russia's Foreign Ministry repeatedly urged Georgia to stick with its earlier commitments and cooperate with Russia in "voluntary" repatriation of Chechen refugees from Georgia.

Now, the Russian military claims that following the Soviet collapse in 1991, some 150 "Igla," or "Needle," portable missile launchers remained in Georgia. Russian experts allege serial numbers on missiles that Russian troops have captured in Chechnya show that the weapons came from Georgian stockpiles.