EurasiaNet Civil Society - Ter-Petrosian: Is Armenia Ready for a Comeback?

CIVIL SOCIETY

TER-PETROSIAN: IS ARMENIA READY FOR A COMEBACK?
Marianna Grigoryan 10/30/07

Both in public and in private, one question has dominated conversations in Armenia over the past month: Will Levon Ter-Petrosian’s return to politics prove a true comeback?

While Ter-Petrosian’s chances for success in next year’s presidential elections remain uncertain, an upsurge of popular interest in the 62-year-old ex-president and support for his reelection campaign suggest that Armenia’s political field is changing fast.

"He is the most pivotal statesman and politician in Armenia’s political life and has no competitors in this sense," argued political analyst Suren Sureniants, a member of the political council of the opposition Republic (Hanrapetutiun) Party.

Charisma, intellect and hands-on experience are the attributes used to tout Ter-Petrosian, yet no opinion polls have been taken on how voters compare these attributes with those of Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian, the government’s projected presidential candidate. Aharon Adibekian, the head of the independent polling center Sociometer, said that a survey run in January 2007 gave the former president a "rather low" assessment, but added that "everything is still ahead and we cannot draw a conclusion yet." Polls on the question are expected "in the near future," he said.

For now, though, the lack of hard data to back up their hopes for a Ter-Petrosian win does not disturb the opposition. Reactions to Ter-Petrosian’s candidacy may vary, commented Sureniants, but, for the opposition, the ex-president’s return to politics "is perhaps an exclusive chance to get noticed."

The October 26 demonstration at which Ter-Petrosian announced his candidacy arguably marked the beginning of a new period for the opposition, elaborated one rank-and-file supporter. "I think that was an historical moment," translator Hakob Mkrtchian said. "We have waited long for him to return to politics. I think his statement opened a new page in Armenia’s dull political life." Sixty-year-old doctor Laura Harutiunian agreed. With a candidate that has "the respect of many intellectuals," she said, voters can "finally make a choice." [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"I think that a new opposition movement has been formed and consolidated around Levon Ter-Petrosian and, if it takes more actions in the future, it will convince many to follow," said pro-opposition columnist Tigran Paskevichian.

A first step should be deciding on a response to what the opposition terms a "news blockade" by public television and other television stations against stories about Ter-Petrosian’s campaign and the October 26 rally, Paskevichian said.

Many supporters agree. A report by public television about the demonstration showed the square in downtown Yerevan where thousands had gathered to hear Ter-Petrosian speak as "half-empty," related teacher Narine Hakobian, who attended the rally. "The report alternated with black-and-white footage showing �what terrible years we had’ under the first president. What is being done by the authorities is not honest, I think."

One public television employee has dismissed the criticism. "And why should public TV show what you want? Our camera showed what was taking place," asserted Haroutiun Haroutiunian, director of Armenian Public Television’s Haylur news program.

Political analyst Alexander Iskandarian, however, contends that a television blockade will have little effect on Ter-Petrosian’s campaign.

"If the authorities try their chances with television broadcasts, which is not ruled out, then the struggle will pass to the streets. �. The field of struggle will be through public rallies," he said. "And in that field, Ter-Petrosian feels quite confident, as he is an experienced public figure. "

However, political analyst Aris Ghazinian argues that other images could well tarnish that of Ter-Petrosian as the crowd-pleasing leader of Armenia’s Soviet-era nationalist movement.

"Ter-Petrosian’s tactic was like the tactic followed by the leader of Soviet Armenia, Karen Demirchian. He also stayed in voluntary retirement for 10 years and it was during that period that his image became legendary and he turned into an epic national hero," Ghazinian said. "But, unlike Demirchian, Ter-Petrosian does not have the same resource of nostalgia, the memories of the secure � peaceful and satisfied Soviet past."

For many voters, other analysts agree, Ter-Petrosian’s rule from 1991 to 1998 is identified with the simultaneous crises of war, economic depression and electricity shortages -- a combination that brought the newly independent state to the brink of collapse. Pro-government media has been touting roughly the same line for the past month, with regular television programs and pro-government newspaper commentaries reexamining the difficulties of the early post-Soviet period.

"Why do I need Ter-Petrosian’s return [to power]?" asked Yerevan taxi driver Artush Mkrtchian. "Are we so satisfied with our life today that we want to return to the dark and cold years?"

Attacking the government will do little to change that impression, argues parliamentarian Armen Ashotian of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia. "We don’t see Levon Ter-Petrosian as a new fresh force and, in fact, there is nothing new in what he says."

As have other pro-government lawmakers, Ashotian expressed "full confidence" in Prime Minister Sarkisian’s ability to prevail at the polls.

To political analyst Iskandarian, though, Sarkisian and Ter-Petrosian are evenly matched. "The struggle will be not only between the two ideologies, between the two figures, but between two methods of struggle," he said. "What is important is which of the two the public will believe."

Editor�s Note: Marianna Grigoryan is a deputy editor for the independent ArmeniaNow weekly in Yerevan.

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