Opposition Leaders Embrace Confrontational Rhetoric in Georgia

Confrontation looms in Georgia over the disputed results of the country's parliamentary election. An "opposition united front" maintains that the government engaged in widespread vote-rigging and is demanding that officials "give back to the people the votes they have cast." At the same time, President Eduard Shevardnadze's administration appears to be bracing for a fight, describing the opposition's behavior as "unacceptable."

Opposition leaders have vowed that they will mount a nationwide protest campaign, in which "tens of thousands of people will take to the streets," if the government does not recognize what they call the real election results, which show opposition parties with a far larger share of the vote than that reflected by the official preliminary totals. Over the past 24 hours, the opposition rhetoric has adopted a confrontational tone. "If Shevardnadze wants a revolution, he will get a revolution," Mikheil Saakashvili, the leader of the National Movement, told a crowd of supporters outside Tbilisi City Hall late November 4.

The official Central Election Commission (CEC) vote count was continuing three days since the polls closed in the November 2 parliamentary vote. According to the latest CEC figures, the pro-Shevardnadze For a New Georgia bloc is leading with 24.7 percent. Saakashvili's National Movement is second with 22.2 percent. The CEC totals show that four other parties - Labor, the Burjanadze-Democrats, New Rights and the Union for Georgia's Democratic Revival -- are likely to clear the 7 percent barrier needed to win parliamentary seats.

The CEC results contrast sharply with a parallel count conducted by the Fair Elections non-governmental organization, which showed the National Movement to be the leading vote getter. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. A statement released by Fair Elections on November 4 said that electoral violations were widespread, though "not so bad as to merit the invalidation" of the overall election results. The NGO said government fraud, in addition to administrative disorder, marred the election.

"The election administration often failed to comply with Georgian law," the Fair Elections statement said. "However, this cannot merely be understood as administrative failure. We must also stress that this sometimes constituted deliberate acts of election fraud. The intimidation of observers cannot be assessed as administrative error, nor can the stuffing of ballot boxes be explained as technical incompetence."

Fair Elections also said that data it collected showed that "the officially reported turnout has been inflated and protocols were forged." It said instances of fraud were "especially evident" in the autonomous republic of Ajaria, and in the Kvemo Kartli region, which has a high concentration of ethnic Azeris. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Several opposition parties decided to join forces November 4 to press the government to "put an immediate end to the process of vote rigging." The united front comprises the National Movement, the Burjanadze-Democrats and the Ertoba (Unity) bloc, which is led by the former Communist leader Jumber Patiashvili. The coalition is willing to use mass protests to maintain pressure on the government.

Representatives of the Burjanadze-Democrats have characterized the vote-rigging as a "coup attempt," according to a report by the Prime News agency. The party's co-leader, Parliament Speaker Nino Burjanadze, said in an interview with Russian television that the Georgian people were "incensed" and called on the government to "come to its senses."

Zurab Zhvania, the other leader of the Burjanadze-Democrats, also called on the government to acknowledge vote-rigging. "The authorities still have a chance, peacefully and without a problem, to give back to the people the votes they have cast," Zhvania said during a November 4 opposition rally. "If it does not happen, we will fight to the end" to resist the election results based on fraud.

Conspicuously absent from the opposition rally November 4 were New Rights party representatives. Party leader Davit Gamkrelidze told a news conference that New Rights was not planning on joining the united opposition front. Gamkrelidze expressed anger at Saakashvili, who has suggested that New Rights may not have gained enough votes to clear the 7 percent barrier.

Shevardnadze's administration showed no signs of moderating its position. The president has sought to legitimize the CEC results, while admitting that the election was hampered by administrative problems. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"I do not think anything alarming or disastrous happened in Georgia," said Shevardnadze, in comments broadcast by state television. The president went on to say that he would "not be intimidated" by the opposition's confrontational rhetoric.

During his comments, Shevardnadze made a reference to the domestic turmoil that marked the end of former President Zviad Gamsakhurdia's tenure, implying that the opposition was seeking a return to those chaotic times in the early 1990s. Such comments are clearly designed to dampen the enthusiasm of opposition supporters to take to the streets. Georgians recall the civil warfare that occurred during Gamsakhurdia's administration, in particular the fighting in Abkhazia, with horror and revulsion.

"Individual politicians are too impatient and getting worked up," Shevardnadze said.

Security official are preparing for possible riots. Deputy Minister of State Anzor Baluashvili told the Itar-Tass news agency that "authorities will not allow the destabilization of the country." Baluashvili pledged that "force will not be used" against demonstrators, but added that "all measures envisaged under the law" would be employed to contain disorder.

On November 5, the capital Tbilisi was relatively quiet during the day. Saakashvili and other senior opposition figures traveled outside of Tbilisi to mobilize support in Georgia's regions. Before departing, Saakashvili announced that protest actions have started in several cities, including Zugdidi, Gori and Zestaponi.

Later on November 5, the united front staged a demonstration at Freedom Square. Supporters then marched down the central Rustaveli Avenue, stopping outside the CEC headquarters. Saakashvili said the opposition planned to hold its next demonstration on November 7, the day that CEC final results are expected. Saakashvili predicted the opposition effort would be successful. "Georgia is starting to breathe again," he told the crowd.