Georgia: Protests, Talks with Government Continue

After four days of protests in Tbilisi, no sign of compromise has emerged between the Georgian government and an opposition coalition. While the number of protesters declined over the weekend, coalition leaders maintain that they will continue their campaign to hold early parliamentary elections and to secure President Mikheil Saakashvili's resignation.

On November 5, opposition leaders met with Parliamentary Speaker Nino Burjanadze to discuss the possibility of holding a referendum about the election date, currently scheduled for the fall of 2008. Holding a referendum on the election date had been proposed by the opposition New Rights Party, a centrist-conservative group that is not part of the 10-party opposition coalition staging the protests outside of parliament. "Instead of the opposition and government moving closer, they are getting further apart," said New Rights Party International Secretary Giorgi Mosidze. "We believe a referendum will solve everything."

The coalition has called for parliamentary elections to be held in the spring of 2008, when the current parliament's term expires. A constitutional amendment passed earlier this year allows for the vote to coincide with presidential elections to be held sometime between October and December 2008. President Saakashvili has the final say on when the elections will be held.

Some opposition members have said that the interim period between April and the fresh elections mean that parliamentarians will effectively lose their mandate. Political analyst Khatuna Lagazidze, however, noted that early elections would likely benefit the opposition more than incumbent authorities, given the current level of public dissatisfaction with Georgian politics.

Signs were emerging late on November 5, however, that the opposition may itself be split over the idea of a referendum. Speaking to television reporters before the meeting with Burjanadze, Conservative Party senior member Kakha Kukava, a coalition leader, stated that there is "no chance" for compromise if the government continues to block early elections.

Lagazidze believes that neither side is prepared for a referendum at this point. Quoting "friends" in the government and the opposition, she stated that there is little chance that the proposal will be accepted. "Neither side is sure that they will win," she said.

In his first public comments since the protests began on November 2, President Saakashvili flatly rejected any chance for early elections. During a pre-taped interview with Georgian Public Television aired on November 4, Saakashvili claimed that "dark forces" are trying to stir up unrest in Georgia – an opaque reference to Russia – and asserted that there would be "no concessions" on the parliamentary elections since the later date is in the country's "interests."

"We will protect the interests of the Georgian people to the end. No concessions to these dark, absolutely 100-percent negative forces at the expense of the Georgian people, at the expense of Georgia's fundamental interests, at the expense of Georgia's future, at the expense of the Georgian economy have been made, are being made now and never will be made," Saakashvili said. "I want everyone to fully comprehend this."

Russia is scheduled to hold presidential elections in March 2008, a fact that some government supporters believe could somehow affect the outcome of Georgian parliamentary elections held in April or March. The protests themselves are widely attributed to actions taken by Moscow.

In comments to Rustavi-2 television on November 4, Education Minister Kakha Lomaia charged that the opposition's demands were "blackmail" that had been "masterminded in the capital city of our northern neighbor."

One member of the ruling National Movement Party, however, has broken ranks with the government over the issue. On November 4, parliamentarian Guguli Maghradze told reporters that the demand for elections when parliament's term expires is legitimate, but appealed to listeners to "help the Georgian president maintain his legitimacy. . . We will not leave the president in the hands of the people who push him towards confrontation."

For the opposition, the president's speech did little to diminish the chances for confrontation. Salome Zourabishvili, a former foreign minister under Saakashvili and leader of the opposition party Georgia's Way, said the president has "lost his chance."
"He has lost a great chance and I believe that Georgia has gained a great chance. Tomorrow he will see what Georgia is like," she told television journalists Sunday night.

Levan Tsutskiridze, rector of Tbilisi's Georgian Institute for Public Affairs, noted that despite the decrease in the number of demonstrators, the opposition movement still has a chance to achieve some of its goals. While the government remains opposed to changing the election date, he said in an email interview, the ruling National Movement Party has expressed willingness to work on other issues such as the makeup of the election commission.

"This indicates that the door for a political dialogue is still open," he said.

Tina Khidasheli, a senior member of the Republican Party, told EurasiaNet on November 5 that the demonstrations would continue. Opposition leaders, she said, are not concerned that the number of protesters will decline. "The situation has escalated," she said.

The government, however, has given no sign that it agrees. Two busloads of riot police were seen stationed behind the main government building on November 3, but they were not deployed.

Meanwhile, the crowds in front of parliament thinned Monday, although the protesters continue to enjoy notable support, especially from the entertainment community. Popular pop singer Utsnobi (The Stranger) released a song over the weekend depicting Saakashvili as Nero as Rome burns around him. A steady stream of directors, actors, singers and writers, including legendary film director Giorgi Shengelaia, addressed protestors from the steps of parliament over the weekend.

Talk about potential "provocations" ran rampant. On Sunday, a police captain, allegedly acting on his own, reportedly brought "spoiled" wine to demonstrators. Over 30 people were poisoned according to television reports; the police captain has since been detained.

According to a report on Imedi television, a pro-opposition station originally owned by opposition financier Badri Patarkatsishvili, a member of the Labor Party was beaten the night after the first protest, November 2, after attempting to give Interior Minister Vano Merabishvili a dress as a gift.