EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Political Storm Coulds Build in Georgia

EURASIA INSIGHT

POLITICAL STORM COULDS BUILD IN GEORGIA
11/06/03

Relative calm prevailed in Georgia on November 6, as opposition leaders declared a pause in protest actions over disputed parliamentary election results. However, there are indications that many Georgians are uncomfortable with the confrontational tactics employed by the opposition united front.

The Central Election Commission was continuing to tabulate the results of the November 2 parliamentary election. The latest figures showed the pro-government For a New Georgia bloc with 24.3 percent of the vote, 2 points ahead of the opposition National Movement. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. A parallel vote count shows the National Movement to be far ahead of For a New Georgia. CEC Chairwoman Nana Devdariani has vigorously defended the accuracy of the official count. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Opposition leaders remain convinced that the discrepancy in the vote counts is the result of government vote-rigging. Mikheil Saakashvili, the National Movement leader, suspended demonstrations organized by an opposition "united front" until November 7, when the final CEC vote totals are expected to be released. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In the meantime, he is demanding that officials refrain from fixing the election, hinting darkly that if the opposition complaints are left unaddressed, he will mount popular protests that aim to topple President Eduard Shevardnadze’s administration.

During a November 5 rally, Saakashvili denounced Shevardnadze administration officials as "bandits," adding that if they did not recognize that the National Movement was the leading vote-getter they stood to be "swept away mercilessly by the people."

"We do not intend to retreat," Saakashvili said. "Either the National Movement gets first place, or Shevardnadze becomes a pensioner and gets a pension that he does not deserve."

Saakashvili’s confrontational rhetoric has some observers in Tbilisi worried that Georgia may be headed for a return of the kind of civil strife that enveloped the country during the early 1990s. Saakashvili’s rhetoric has already caused a split among opposition groups. While the Burjanadze-Democrats and the Ertoba bloc have joined the National Movement in the united front, other influential parties � especially Labor and New Rights � are staying away.

"Every party, every political force has its own path and makes its own choice," the Imedi television channel quoted New Rights leader David Gamkrelidze as saying. "Our choice is to avoid the escalation of the situation and street ultimatums."

Meanwhile, Labor Party leader Shalva Natelashvili accused Saakashvili of leading Georgia to the brink of a national disaster. "Your fight is looking for ways to destroy our motherland and obliterate it from the map of history. ... But we will not give you the right to do so."

Presidential spokesman Kakha Imnadze characterized an opposition demand that Shevardnadze resign as "incomprehensible," Imedi reported. He accused Saakashvili of conspiring to carry out a coup. "This is quite a covert operation being conducted by them to usurp power," Imnadze said.

Interior Minister Koba Narchemashvili and National Security Minister Valery Khaburdzania claimed that law enforcement agents had uncovered evidence that the opposition coalition planned armed action, according to a report broadcast by the Russian radio station Ekho Moskvy.

Meanwhile, the United States has expressed concern about voting irregularities. US Ambassador to Tbilisi Richard Miles conveyed Washington’s concerns to Shevardnadze during a November 5 meeting. Miles called on Shevardnadze to take measures that promote popular confidence in the electoral process, according to a report by the Kavkasia-Press news agency. Miles pointedly mentioned "the delays in the counting of votes" as a particular source of concern.

The opposition coalition appears to have drawn energy from the US position on the election. During the November 5 rally, Saakashvili told the crowd that Shevardnadze "received very strict warnings from the White House in Washington." Meanwhile, the spokeswoman for the For a New Georgia bloc, Irina Sarishvili-Chanturia, claimed that agents of both the United States and Russia were helping to stoke the opposition protests.

Miles said he was working to reduce tension. "I have met opposition leaders and heads of law-enforcement agencies. There are no grounds for destabilization," he said. "People have the right to stage peaceful rallies. I urge the opposition to keep its calm."

The Central Eurasia Project aims, through its website, meetings, papers, and grants, to foster a more informed debate about the social, political and economic developments of the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is a program of the Open Society Institute-New York. The Open Society Institute-New York is a private operating and grantmaking foundation that promotes the development of open societies around the world by supporting educational, social, and legal reform, and by encouraging alternative approaches to complex and controversial issues.

The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily represent the position of the Open Society Institute and are the sole responsibility of the author or authors.