On December 15, Iranians go to the polls to choose among thousands of candidates for city and village councils. A split among governing conservatives has raised hopes among reformists for a potential small-scale political comeback.
These are no ordinary small-town election races. The councils are able to act to some degree without interference from the otherwise omnipresent central government. The Ministry of the Interior has announced that nearly 247,000 people have registered to run for over 100,000 empty seats.
This year, the council elections coincide with elections for the Assembly of Experts, the religious institution that selects and monitors Iran's supreme leader, and special parliamentary elections. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Consequently, the triple vote has raised the stakes of the council elections for all political factions.
Conservative groups are now splintered, with various factions vying with each other and with the reformists. The conservatives, now divided between the Traditional Right and the New Rightist factions, are finding it difficult to agree on a united list for Tehran's elections. Incumbent Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is expected to head the final list. The differences over the list of conservative candidates could conceivably make it possible for the reformists to capture some of the 15 council seats up for grabs.
A further complication is that the New Rightists (President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is the most prominent member) are, in turn, divided among themselves. Many supporters of the president are stubbornly refusing to unite with other rightist groups. But some representatives of neo-conservative-connected groups, including Abadgaran (The Alliance of Builders of an Islamic Iran) and Isargaran (Revolution Devotees' Society) are open to cooperation with like-minded factions. The pro-presidential group is now working out of a separate, newly formed campaign headquarters.
The presidential camp itself appears to have triggered the split. So far, 30 government officials -- including two vice presidents -- have resigned from office in order to get involved in the election campaign. One of the president's closest advisors, Mojtaba Samare, resigned as vice president to become the deputy interior minister responsible for political affairs. In this new capacity, Samare will oversee the conduct of the election.
Hussain Rezakhah, a member of the political committee of the pro-presidential campaign headquarters, summarized its political outlook in comments published by the Maromsalari newspaper: "Seventeen million votes (referring to the votes cast in the presidential election for Ahmadinejad) means we don't need anybody else. It is the other groups that must follow us."
The president's hubris has understandably riled other conservative forces. The competiting conservative factions have resorted to leaking potentially damaging information. One recent leak claimed that local government entities had improperly run up significant budget deficits, spending lavishly in order to enhance Ahmadinejad's political position.
In response to the controversy surrounding government officials' campaign activities, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei intervened, cautioning against electioneering by the government in favor of candidates. Yet, even this injunction has failed to deter the president's camp from campaigning vigorously for favored candidates in Tehran, site of the most important city council election.
Meanwhile, the reformists are attempting to capitalize. Since their exit from the national political scene following the 2005 presidential election, reform supporters have concentrated on rebuilding their strength at the local level, working in the non-governmental sector and in town councils. Some 20 groups, including supporters of a more pragmatic faction associated with former president Aliakbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, have united to take part in next month's elections. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Under the constitution, unelected bodies like the Guardian Council, which possesses vetting power that has prevented many eligible candidates from running for the parliament or the presidency in the past, have far less power over council elections. Consequently, many individuals not aligned with the conservatives are expected to run.
Hurdles remain for potential reformist candidates, however. Oversight committees are expected to winnow out many candidates. At the same time, new laws make it easier to disqualify candidates and allow for overt interference in the election process itself. For example, an amended election law, called The Comprehensive Election Act, reorganized local 11-member executive committees that are responsible for vote-tallying, while also enhancing the oversight authority of unelected entities, including conservative-controlled courts.
For the first time, the hard-line Guardian Council, with its 300,000 functionaries, will also be allowed to monitor the vote with parliament.
The December elections will be the third such vote since elected town councils were introduced under former President Mohammad Khatami in 1999. In that election, voters overwhelmingly chose reformist candidates over conservative ones. As reformists lost their momentum under intense pressure from the hardliners, however, voters became increasingly apathetic.
In the second election in 2003, most voters stayed away from the polls. The election in Tehran, however, proved pivotal for Iranian politics. The vote was the first electoral comeback for Iran's hard-line forces, which won all of the capital's council seats, with future the president, Ahmadinejad, elected as mayor. Observers do not rule out similar surprises for this year's vote.
Editor's note:
Kamal Nazer Yasin is a pseudonym for a freelance journalist specializing in Iranian affairs.
