EU Report Sharply Criticizes Turkey’s Reform Record

Turkey's accession negotiations with the European Union are entering a critical period after an EU report, released November 8, sharply criticized Ankara's reform performance.

European Union diplomats have been warning for months that a slowdown in the Turkish reform process, the large number of free-speech court cases and the closure of Turkish ports and airports to EU-member Cyprus were undermining Ankara's EU accession aspirations. The EU progress report provided the most definitive evidence yet that EU membership for Turkey is not a sure thing.

"There will be a crisis from now until [the upcoming EU summit in] December, that is clear," says Joost Lagendijk, who heads the European Parliament delegation to the joint EU-Turkey parliamentary committee. The November 8 report is likely to form the basis of discussions when leaders of the 25-member EU ponder whether or not to freeze accession negotiations with Turkey.

"The report represents a very important point, politically, as the trains are heading towards a crash," says Kirsty Hughes, a London-based European affairs analyst. "The [report] will be pointing towards a crash, but how bad it is depends on how the EU member countries follow up on it. There's going to be a big fight between the member countries after it comes out over what to do."

The European Commission appeared to set a moderate tone on November 8, recommending against a suspension of accession talks.

Earlier, German Chancellor Angela Merkel issued a stern warning, telling a German newspaper that if Ankara refuses to open up its ports to Cypriot trade – something it has promised to do as part of the deal to begin the negotiations – "the EU accession talks cannot continue in this fashion."

Diplomats and analysts in Turkey are downbeat about the prospects of Ankara regaining reform momentum anytime soon. A wave of anti-Western nationalism has been washing over Turkey, fueled by a perception that the EU has been one-sided on the Cyprus issue. Recent European moves on the Armenian issue have also antagonized Ankara, in particular a recent law passed by the lower house of the French parliament making it a crime to deny that the mass killings of Armenians by the Ottoman Turks constitutes genocide.

Turkey will hold parliamentary elections next November, and observers in Turkey believe that little progress will happen on the EU front, as political parties are expected to emphasize their nationalist credentials and distance themselves from the currently unpopular accession negotiations.

According to a June poll by the Pew Research Center, Turkish support for the EU has fallen to 35 percent, down from almost 80 percent three years ago (support for the United States was a dismal 12 percent, according to the same poll).

"I don't think joining the EU would be a good thing for Turkey. They are pushing us too hard. They always want something more," says Faruk Yilmaz, who works in a small kiosk that sells snack food in Istanbul's historic Beyoglu neighborhood. "Turkey has wanted to be a member for such a long time. We are always walking towards them and they send us back to the start.

Suat Kiniklioglu, executive director of the German Marshall Fund's Turkey office, says that while EU membership was once supported by a majority of Turks, today it is a divisive issue. "Certainly the military and the secularists have turned against the EU and for them a negative [EU progress] report would be welcomed, since it would mean a slowdown in the negotiations," he said.

"I am afraid that the people who believe that Turkey belongs in Europe are becoming a minority," he continued.

But if not in Europe, then where does Turkey belong? There have been suggestions that the country's government, run by the Islamic-rooted Justice and Development Party, might lead Turkey towards a closer alliance with the Islamic world. But Ioannis Grigoriadis, a professor of political science at Istanbul's Isik University, says that rather than eastward, Turkey's growing nationalism is looking inward.

"It could end up with a Turkey that is very introverted and self-reliant," he says.

A distancing from the EU, says Grigoriadis, could ultimately hurt the process of democratization in Turkey, since "the EU acts as both an anchor and as a trigger, on the one hand pushing for change from the outside, but also protecting the steps already made."

Despite the criticism from Brussels, as well as the nationalist mood in Turkey, there are indications that both sides are working to reach a compromise before the EU summit in December. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently expressed a willingness to amend article 301, a controversial law limiting free speech, while there are also efforts to work out an interim deal on the Cyprus issue.

"I think all parties will try until the last moment way to prevent this train crash," says Lagendijk, the European parliamentarian.

Some are also suggesting that beyond compromise what may also be needed is a change in the way the EU approaches Turkey. Kemal Dervis, Turkey's former economy minister and the current head of the United Nations Development Program, recently said that the EU's constant pressure for reform will only continue to alienate Turks. Isik University's Grigoriadis say that if the EU wants to keep Turkey within its orbit, it has to reel the country in slowly. "You can't pull the line too tight, or it will break," he says.