Taliban Resistance in Northern Afghanistan Collapsing

Forces of the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance have swept out of Mazar-i-Sharif, which fell November 9, to take control of almost all of northern and western parts of Afghanistan. The Northern Alliance now controls an estimated 40 percent of Afghanistan. Just four days ago, Northern Alliance troops occupied only pockets of north and northeastern Afghanistan.

Hundreds of Taliban troops have reportedly been killed in clashes with Northern Alliance forces, which are now positioned to capture the key city of Herat in western Afghanistan, and move against Taliban forces in central regions of the country. Herat is considered a strategic gateway to Taliban strongholds in the south of the country.

With the United States, Britain and Pakistan urging restraint on any early Northern Alliance push on Kabul and the continuing weakness of anti-Taliban forces in the south of the country, the battle to eliminate Taliban forces in its southern heartland is expected to extend into the winter and beyond.

The capture of five provinces in northern Afghanistan - Balkh, Samangan, Sar-i-Pol, Jowzjan, Faryab - and the fall of Ghor and Badghis provinces in the west has virtually eliminated the Taliban presence in northern Afghanistan. The Taliban now hold just a small pocket in the northeast around the town of Kunduz. Some Arab, Pakistani and Central Asian units allied to the Taliban are believed to have retreated towards Kunduz from Mazar-i-Sharif.

Up to 1,200 of these foreign fighters reportedly made a stand outside of Mazar. Refusing to surrender, the majority were killed, although some were captured. ''We asked them to give in because we are Muslims and jihad cannot be fought against us,'' said Ustad Mohaqiq who heads the Shi'ia Hazara faction of the Northern Alliance, and was one of three commanders who led the capture of Mazar-i-Sharif on Friday. ''But they resisted and were killed in fighting."

Taloqan, the capital of Takhar province, fell to the Northern Alliance late on November 10 after a fierce 12-hour struggle. The capture of Taloqan opens up a land route for the resupply of Northern Alliance forces from Tajikistan, where ammunition, arms and food from Russia, India and Iran are awaiting shipment.

Meanwhile, alliance commander Ismail Khan said yesterday that some of his forces were now poised just 20 miles from Herat, the largest city in western Afghanistan whose fall would lead to the collapse of Taliban control in the west of the country along the border with Iran. Control of Shindand, the largest airport in the country and some 40 miles from Herat would put US helicopters just a 30-minute ride away from Kandahar.

Northern Alliance units are also moving through the Hazarajat region in central Afghanistan. Thousands of Taliban fighters in the Hazarajat who do not belong to the majority Pashtun ethnic group, from which the Taliban are drawn, switched sides and joined alliance troops November 10. Pashtun Taliban were reported to have fled towards Kabul.

The capture of the Hazarajat and its capital Bamiyan, where the Taliban destroyed two giant Buddha statues in April, is crucial if the Northern Alliance is going to link up its forces in the north with its forces around the capital Kabul and trap those Taliban remaining in the north.

The November 9 fall of Mazar-i-Sharif was the first significant achievement for the US-led anti-terrorism campaign after more nearly six weeks of intense bombing in Afghanistan. The city's capture eased pressure on US military planners, who had started to face criticism at home and abroad for the lack of progress in the war. It also provides a political test for Washington's partners, the Northern Alliance, which must quickly overcome a legacy of past human rights abuses and demonstrate an ability to effectively govern.

The coming days will be crucial in determining whether a vicious cycle of abuses and revenge can be broken. Blood feuds rage between the Taliban and those forces now occupying Mazar. Northern Alliance commanders will have a tough time controlling their largely undisciplined troops for carrying out revenge attacks.

For the past month, Mazar-i-Sharif had been besieged by three separate anti-Taliban factions, each representing a different ethnic group. The main force, led by General Rashid Dostum, is Uzbek. Dostum joined the Northern Alliance relatively late, and reportedly has major strategic differences with leaders of other factions. The second force is comprised of Tajiks under the command of General Atta Mohammed. The smallest faction is led by Mohaqiq, commander of the Hazaras.

Violence has been intertwined with ethnicity in Mazar-i-Sharif. The Taliban who are drawn from the Pashtun tribes in south Afghanistan have always been seen in the north as interlopers and an occupying army. In 1997, Uzbeks militia massacred about 6,000 Taliban soldiers and other Pashtuns when the Taliban first tried to capture the city. When Mazar finally fell in 1998, the Taliban retaliated by butchering some 8,000 Hazaras and Uzbeks. Taliban leaders also forbade Hazaras from practicing their Shi'ia form of Islam.

Another concern is that the Northern Alliance factions will not be able to form a unified administration in Mazar. If the three rival alliance commanders divide up the city into their own spheres of influence, as they did in the past, and carry out retribution killings of Pashtun residents, it would destroy the Northern Alliance's credibility as a viable political force in Afghanistan's reconstruction.

Pashtuns and other Afghans are sure to scrutinize the Northern Alliance's every move in Mazar during the coming days and weeks. One way Northern Alliance commanders can dispel suspicion is to press forward with the idea of a Supreme Council for National Unity under the auspices of former Afghan king Mohammed Zahir Shah.

Mazar has enormous strategic significance. It is just 40 miles from the border with Uzbekistan, where roughly 2,000 US special forces are based. The city has a large airport, which could serve as a bridgehead for US military operations against the Taliban and al Qaeda forces elsewhere in the country.

In addition, securing Mazar can boost international humanitarian aid programs. The worst levels of starvation and illness are found in western and northern Afghanistan. Securing Mazar would improve the emergency response by reducing the distances separating dislocated Afghans from relief supplies. For the United States, any improvement in the humanitarian response would be welcome, helping to dispel the growing notion in the Islamic world that Washington is waging war against Afghanistan and its people, and not against terrorist groups.

Beyond its strategic significance, Mazar is Afghanistan's prime economic engine. About 60 percent of Afghanistan's agricultural resources and 80 percent of its former industry, mineral and gas wealth are located in and around the city. That helps explain why the Taliban were willing to suffer over 12,000 casualties before finally capturing the city in 1998. Mazar also holds the most revered shrine in the country - the Tomb of Ali - the cousin and son-in-law of The Prophet Mohammed and the fourth Caliph of Islam, whom the Shi'ia in particular revere.