Kazakhstan Opposition Party Showing New Stridency

As parliamentary elections in Georgia face mounting criticism, maneuvers in Kazakhstan suggest that elections there in 2004 will be more antagonistic than was originally thought. President Nursultan Nazarbayev, known for negotiating with multinational players, has started appealing to small and midsize businesses in what analysts are calling a bid to attract the Ak Zhol party. The bid comes as a former Nazarbayev advisor joins Ak Zhol.

On October 31, Nazarbayev made a flattering pro-business speech at a forum of Kazakhstani entrepreneurs. He posited entrepreneurs as exemplars of patriotism, civil solidarity, responsibility and partnership- and thereby as leaders in a civil society. The speech emphasized Nazarbayev's expressed interest in promoting a strong middle class. "The President has undertaken a strategic step towards small and midsize businesspeople ahead of parliamentary elections in 2004," one analyst who requested anonymity told EurasiaNet.

The calculus for this appeal is straightforward, the analyst said. The Ak Zhol party, which seeks to gain seats in the next parliament, speaks on behalf of Kazakhstan's businesses. Many of its potential voters own or manage private enterprises. Since Ak Zhol (which means Bright Road) has attracted a milder strain of reformist than the Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan, observers say, Nazarbayev hopes to sew up its members' loyalty in any broad fight.

This sort of overture may protect the president from fallout involving his eldest daughter, Dariga Nazarbayeva, whom some have cast as an heir apparent comparable to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. Nazarbayeva presided over an organizational meeting of her new party, Asar (All Together), in late October. She lined up behind her father, saying the party would follow a strategy much like his "Kazakhstan 2030" plan. [For background, see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Yet business leaders have not shown great eagerness to join Asar. And Nazarbayeva's opponents have shown little fear in criticizing her.

One outspoken critic, Altinbek Sarsenbayev, former Culture Minister and more recently ambassador to Russia, criticized Nazarbayeva in Vremya, a newspaper close to Ak Zhol. In the piece, he noted that he had held his tongue about Nazarbayev's political crisis in 2001- but warned that he would have to "speak the truth" if the president's daughter kept provoking him. Some observers saw this comment as a veiled warning to Nazarbayev, and speculated that Sarsenbayev may be preparing to join the political fray.

In the same interview, Sarsenbayev branded the pro-Presidential parties as "social clubs" beholden to Nazarbayev's instructions. This language served to notify the elite that any step suggesting a dynastic transfer of power to Nazarbayeva would meet strident criticism.

Ten days later, Sarsenbayev was out of a job: the president's office announced his retirement from diplomacy. Foreign Minister Kasymzhomart Tokayev dubbed the retirement a "personal decision." Sarsenbayev reportedly refused a new job within the government and joined the Ak Zhol party on November 9. The envoy to Iran, Tulegen Zhukeyev, joined parliament deputy Amalbek Tshanov in expressing loyalty to Ak Zhol.

With Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan leader Galymzhan Zhakiyanov in jail since summer 2002, Nazarbayev's image is fraying. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In November, United States Senators Patrick Leahy (D-Vermont) and John McCain (R-Arizona) urged the White House to express solidarity with Zhakiyanov. But the drift of powerful figures toward Ak Zhol probably began to gain momentum, analysts say, after elections in Azerbaijan prompted worries of similar dynastic games in Astana. The emergence of Asar and the circulation of a controversial draft law on media may be making politicians suspicious about Nazarbayev's approach.

According to the analyst who sees Nazarbayev playing to the small-business crowd, Ak Zhol looks warily at the doings of Nazarbayev's family. Those business leaders unaffiliated with the president, including the powerful Kazkommertzbank Group, may also be reacting to the downfall of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the chairman of Moscow's Yukos Oil. Khodorkovsky went to jail in late October on obscure charges, causing many to speculate that Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to reassert his government's primacy in economic affairs. The analyst stressed that if Russia becomes more aggressive in controlling business toward government's liking, Kazakhstan is likely to follow suit.

In the end, Nazarbayev may be reaching out to Ak Zhol's voters directly because he cannot be sure of the party's collaboration in 2004. On October 15, Ak Zhol chairman Alikhan Baymenov publicly called on the government to ratify a Commonwealth on Independent States convention on local elections. In so doing, Ak Zhol joined forces with parties like the Communists and Patriots who define themselves by refusing to work with the president. "By this step, Ak Zhol is showing authorities that it can cooperate with opposition parties like Communists in case of continuing pressure", the analyst said. And Sarsenbayev`s emergence has increased Ak Zhol's potential to influence voting and governing in 2004.