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EURASIA INSIGHT

IRAN SEEKS TO KEEP US TROOPS IN IRAQ
Kamal Nazer Yasin 11/13/06

Iran is working quietly but feverishly to prevent the total collapse of order in Baghdad and the hasty departure of US forces. Some policy experts in Tehran say a full-blown civil war in Iraq would constitute a "catastrophic development" for Iranian geopolitical interests.

A scheduled November 13 policy speech by British Prime Minister Tony Blair was widely expected to contain a call for the United States to engage Iran and Syria on ways to stem the spiraling violence in Iraq and, more broadly, to promote Middle East peace. The Bush administration has long been hostile to both Iran and Syria, but the sweeping gains made by opposition Democrats during the recent US congressional elections are exerting considerable pressure on Bush to reevaluate his foreign policies. Bush was due to meet November 13 with a panel of experts in Washington, known as the Iraq Study Group, which is reviewing US policy options toward Baghdad.

The Iranian government wasted little time in spreading word that it was prepared to hold direct talks with the United States on Iraq stabilization issues. Government spokesman Gholam-Hossein Elham told journalists November 13 that Tehran was hoping Washington "would make a revision of its anti-Iranian attitude," the official IRNA news agency reported.

Bush, however, cautioned Tehran later November 13 not to expect any US move toward dialogue on Iraq, or any other issue, unless Iran suspends its efforts to enrich uranium. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

From Iran’s standpoint, Iraq’s current situation represents a two-pronged challenge: one, Iranian officials are eager to prevent a widening of sectarian violence between Shi’a and Sunni Muslims; and, two, Tehran does not want to see a precipitous departure of US troops in Iraq.

As recently as September, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told a visiting Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki that the "unwanted guests [US troops] must leave the region as soon as possible." But as Iraq careens toward civil war, Iranian officials, along with the leaders of other Middle Eastern states, seem to have publicly softened their rhetoric concerning the US military presence.

"Iranian leaders are as terrified of a hasty US departure as everyone else in the area. They just pretend otherwise," said a political scientist in Tehran who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The political scientist added that a "country-wide civil war in Iraq � would be a catastrophic development for Iran" on many levels. The academic outlined a scenario in which civil war in Iraq would likely produce a refugee crisis in neighboring Iran, which, in turn, could reignite long-simmering inter-ethnic hostilities in Iranian territories along the 700-mile common border. "Iranian security forces are simply not prepared to protect that border against a massive inflow of refugees, weapons, smugglers and armed adversaries of all kinds," the political scientist said.

Beyond a potential refugee crisis, the continuation of the existing trend, culminating in the possible partition of Iraq, would constitute a major diplomatic defeat for Tehran. At present, a Shi’a-dominated government is in place in Baghdad for the first time in modern history. Iran is eager not to lose this strategic advantage.

Iran is believed to have been a generous supplier of arms and logistical support to a variety of Iraqi factions, most notably radical Shi’a cleric Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi militia. Earlier, Iran tacitly encouraged the factions to use their weaponry in an effort to destabilize Iraq and bog down US forces there. Now, Iranian officials are heeding a call for restraint by religious leaders in the Shi’a holy city of Najaf. Iraq’s leading ayatollah, Ali al-Sistani, has reportedly urged Iranian leaders to take steps to bolster the embattled Shi’a government in Baghdad. Ayatollah Sistani’s clerical position obligates Tehran to go along with his wishes, Iranian political observers say. Sadr himself has urged his followers to show restraint. However, his calls have opened cracks within the Mahdi militia, as some radical elements appear unwilling to moderate their violent tactics.

Another major factor in Iran’s policy-making calculus is a desire to maintain "strategic depth." Iranian leaders remain concerned that the Bush administration harbors plans to use force to stop Iran’s nuclear program. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The ability to retaliate against US troops in Iraq, as well as against Israel via the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, is seen by Iranian officials as leverage that diminishes the chances of an American attack on Iran. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Iran is believed to have established vast networks of pro-Iranian elements in Iraq, including special-forces units (collectively known as the Quds Brigade), that can be mobilized quickly to carry out attacks against American forces, if Iran itself comes under a US attack. Wayne White, a former Deputy Director of the Bureau of Intelligence and Research at the State Department, said that Iraq would become a theater of Iranian operations in the event of a US attack against Tehran. "Of course," White said, "US forces are sitting targets there [in Iraq]."

Iranian action to restrain sectarian violence should not be construed as support for Washington’s stabilization efforts, some American political analysts say. Tehran continues to work to undermine US influence in the region, even as it works to keep US troops around.

"Iran would want America to bleed slowly, but not so much as to have it redeploy completely out of Iraq," said W. Patrick Lang, a former high-ranking officer for the US Defense Intelligence Agency. [For additional information see Lang’s blog].

"Moqtada and the Iranians have adopted a waiting posture," Lang said. To supporting his assertion that Iran wants the United States to remain bogged down in Iraq, Lang pointed out that "80 percent of US supplies come from Kuwait via land routes deep inside the Shi’a heartland." Lang added that if Iran desired, it could have its proxies, including the Mahdi militia, turn the transport corridor into "a shooting gallery."

Editor�s Note: Kamal Nazer Yasin is a pseudonym for a freelance journalist specializing in Iranian affairs.

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