Georgia: Opposition Raises Possibility of Presidential Election Boycott

While Georgian opposition presidential candidate Levan Gachechiladze says he is preparing for "a fight" against President Mikheil Saakashvili, opposition leaders are mulling a possible boycott of the January 5 presidential election.

Republican Party leader Davit Usupashvili, in a telephone interview with EurasiaNet, raised the possibility that Georgia's 10-party opposition coalition would not participate in the election if the government can't guarantee an equitable electoral environment. Usupashvili stressed that the opposition is committed to the election for now. But that position might change if it appears that the government is just putting on "a show."

"We are for the elections. In this very problematic situation we have named a candidate," he said. But he went on to say that if the situation does not improve, the coalition's position might change." We will [have to] think: are we participating in elections or is this some sort of show?"

On November 14, the united opposition announced three conditions for free and fair elections: allowing the Imedi and Kavkasia television stations to resume broadcasting; establishing election commissions on all levels with equal representation from the opposition and government; and ending alleged persecution of prominent figures associated with an opposition demonstration in central Tbilisi that was forcibly dispersed on November 7. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Imedi and Kavkasia were both closed on November 7 before the government announced a state of emergency. Currently, only government-controlled television and radio stations are allowed to broadcast news reports. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Officials stated November 14 that the state of emergency will be lifted on November 16. Yet, there is no indication that the pro-opposition Imedi television station will be allowed to resume its broadcasts at that time. On November 14, a Tbilisi judge suspended the television's broadcasting license pending a possible criminal investigation into tycoon Badri Patarkatsishvili. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"We believe that the mass violation of human rights and restrictions on free media will undermine the possibility of holding a free and democratic election, which, in turn, will reinforce the existing political crisis in the country," opposition leaders said in a written statement that was read on the state channel on November 14. "We are willing to continue dialogue with them [government representatives], but only if they have the political willingness to immediately resolve these problems."

Usupashvili stressed that the opposition coalition is not setting a deadline for the government. "We are not going to make this decision [on a boycott] today or tomorrow," he said, adding that "today we do not see any progress on any major issues."

Parliamentary Deputy Speaker Mikheil Machavariani accused "some opposition groups" of being "radical" and seeking to spoil the negotiations. "Part of the opposition parties is still using the language of ultimatums," he told reporters after talks ended November 15. "Their demands are becoming more and more radical in parallel to our compromises." [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Talks between the government and five opposition parties continued on November 15, the same day the parliament began discussions on the election code. Negotiations between the opposition and the government started on November 9, after the Georgian Patriarch Ilia II brokered an agreement between the two sides.

As the election campaign starts to unfold, the deep political divide in Georgia is revealing itself in the way the top candidates frame their candidacies, analysts say. Saakashvili has spent the past week in televised meetings with teachers and doctors. Meanwhile, Gachechiladze is attempting to cast his campaign as a solemn mission for justice. In an interview with EurasiaNet, he indicated that he would eschew glitzy campaign events, such as concerts, and focus on conveying a basic message. "I don't think that in a situation where we are fighting and continuing to fight against the Saakashvili regime, concerts will be very wise," he said.

Marina Muskhelishvili, the head of the Center for Social Studies in Tbilisi, noted that there are several inherent differences between the two campaigns: while Saakashvili is battling for his political career, Gachechiladze is essentially seeking to end his. The cornerstone of the united opposition's platform is a promise that their candidate will remain in power only long enough to hold parliamentary elections, a maximum of several months – as opposed to several years. Those elections would transform Georgia into a parliamentary republic under the opposition blueprint for the country's future. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"[Gachechiladze would be] finishing his political career, rather than starting it," Muskhelishvili said.

According to her, a part of the population that wants a charismatic leader – someone who is "a mixture of [Georgian king and hero] Davit Aghmashenabeli [David the Builder] and Batman." But another segment of the population is ready for a change. "[Gachechiladze is] not a strong political leader, but that might be a positive [in today's context]," she said.

Political scientist Khatuna Lagazidze argues that Gachechiladze is facing an uphill battle against an accomplished politician in Saakashvili. She noted that despite the fact Gachechiladze has been involved in politics for nearly a decade – and is currently an independent member of parliament -- he lacks tactical experience. "He is a nice guy," she said. "[But] he has not had a lot of experience in political battles or in political management.