Tajikistan: Who is Behind the Bomb Blast in Dushanbe?

Law enforcement agencies in Tajikistan are investigating a November 14 bombing in the capital Dushanbe that left one person dead. No individual or group has claimed responsibility. The initial inclination of security officials is to focus on a terrorist connection.

The bomb went off at about 6 am on November 14, exploding outside the Kokh-i Vahdat Conference Center. It killed an elderly janitor who worked at the facility and caused extensive damage to buildings in the area. The center is situated near the presidential palace, the Uzbek Embassy and the National Bank of Tajikistan.

The blast occurred just before the start of a conference sponsored by the European Commission Humanitarian Office on disaster risk reduction in Central Asia. President Imomali Rahmon, meanwhile, departed Dushanbe November 14 for ceremonies in the northern city of Khojand commemorating the 15th anniversary of his rise to power.

Even as the scene was still being sifted for clues, Dushanbe prosecutor Kurbonali Mukhabbatov labeled the bombing "a terrorist act." Foreign experts shared the belief that terrorism was a likely motive. Some identified the radical group, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, as a prime suspect. But others suggested that a wide array of forces could have planted the explosive device, including Islamic militants, drug lords, domestic political opponents of President Imomali Rahmon's administration, and even government officials themselves.

Since the end of Tajikistan's civil war in 1997, Rahmon has succeeded in tightening his grip over the country's political life, and in thoroughly neutralizing opposition political parties. [For background see the Eurasia insight archive]. The results of Tajikistan's most recent parliamentary and presidential elections show that the president now faces few checks on his authority. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"As a possible scenario, one can assume that some Islam-related members of the opposition, wanting to demonstrate that they are still alive, are behind this [the bombing]," Alexei Malashenko, an expert at the Carnegie Center Moscow, said, in comments published by the Kommersant business daily. "On the other hand, any authoritarian ruler needs an external threat. It's always nice when there is an insidious enemy from without."

Shokirjon Rakhimov, a deputy chairman of the Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan, hinted that Rahmon's administration has a strong motive to maintain a heightened state of alert. Blasts that cause far more structural damage than bodily harm, Rakhimov suggested to Kommersant, are most likely intended to "solidify public opinion that, even a decade after the [end of the civil] war, peace is still threatened."

"It helps keep society in fear and uncertainty," Rakhimov continued. "Under such circumstances, one can justify any measures to limit democracy."

Undermining opposition hints of government complicity is the fact that government-controlled radio and television stations have largely been silent about the bombing. The independent Avesta news agency is among the few print domestic outlets to be covering the story. One Avesta report on November 14 quoted Saymiddin Dustov, the head of the informational-analytical centre of the govering People's Democratic Party, as saying the bombing could have been designed to send a message to the Uzbek government, given the Uzbek embassy's location not far from the blast site.

On November 15, Dushanbe suffered another bomb scare. At approximately 5 pm, an alert observer in central Dushanbe spotted a suspicious package and notified authorities. Police cordoned off a large area around the central department store (TZUM) and spent two hours examining the box before eventually setting it ablaze. It did not detonate, and officials said that the package was stuffed with paper. Some political observers, however, questioned whether officials were being completely forthcoming about the mysterious package's contents.

The November 14 explosion is merely the latest in a series of bombings that have periodically hit the Tajik capital. Just under five months ago, bomb went off near the country's Supreme Court building. That explosion caused no casualties but caused extensive property damage. Bombing incidents in central Dushanbe also occurred in 2006 and in 2005.

Authorities took several young men into custody in connection with three explosions on June 15-16, 2006. But many Tajiks remain skeptical about the government's explanation that simple "hooliganism" was behind those blasts. Some analysts believe the 2006 bombings were designed to destabilize Tajikistan's political environment during the run-up to the country's presidential election last November. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. No suspects were taken into custody in connection with the 2005 blast, which authorities said was the work of "Islamic terrorists."