Georgia: State of Emergency Dents Tbilisi's NATO Hopes

The Georgian government's actions over the past 10 days, specifically the introduction of a state of emergency, have damaged the Caucasus country's hopes for gaining entry into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Even so, the United States remains cautiously supportive of Georgia's goal of reaching the next step of NATO accession by next spring, American and Georgian officials say.

The debate within NATO over Georgia's accession has split primarily along geographic lines: the US and Eastern European members are in favor of Georgia, while Western European countries, especially France and Germany, are increasingly skeptical.

The events of the last two weeks – in which the government ordered security forces to disperse an opposition protest, shut down pro-opposition media outlets and declared a state of emergency – have significantly strengthened the hand of Georgia skeptics. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. President Mikheil Saakashvili's administration formally lifted the state of emergency on November 16.

"Among the European members, if it was a tough sell before, then it's going to be an even tougher sell now," said Cory Welt, a scholar at the Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies. "But everyone's waiting to see what happens over the next few months. The Georgian government has a grace period to make this all better – at least in America's eyes."

Georgia had been performing well with the various technical reforms needed to join NATO, said Nicu Popescu, a scholar at the European Council on Foreign Relations. But the political element of NATO membership, which was already in doubt, has been severely damaged by the recent events, he said. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"Now the whole political crisis and the way the Georgian government handled it makes it practically impossible to defend Georgia's case with the numerous skeptics," he said.

Washington continues to support Georgia's NATO accession plans, including getting a formal Membership Action Plan at the next NATO summit, which will take place in April in the Romanian capital Bucharest. But the strength of US support will depend on actions Tbilisi takes before that summit, in particular its performance in staging free and fair presidential elections in January. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"We continue to support Georgia's Euro-Atlantic aspirations and certainly the restoration of all media broadcasts and the validity and credibility of the upcoming elections are all going to factor heavily into the perception of Georgia's eligibility," said one State Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"I'm reasonably confident, in regional terms, Georgia will do fine in its elections," said another US government official. "They won't be perfect, there will be warts, we have to expect that in a young democracy, but it will probably be far more free and fair that what's going to happen to the north [in Russia] in two or three weeks when they have their Duma elections."

"Overall, that whole process [in Georgia] is something that we'll watch closely, and I'm sure the Europeans will watch it closely," the US government official continued. "So how much energy we put into our advocacy for Georgia