Protests in Georgia Stoke Fears of a Return to Violence

As the political confrontation in Tblisi simmers, some observers warn that Georgia is heading for a repeat of the tumult that devastated the country a decade ago. "I am very frightened. There are too many similarities in the present situation to the one in the early 1990's to be sure about tomorrow," said Alexander Russetsky, executive director of the South Caucasus Institute of Regional Security. He cited the chaos associated with the vote taking process, as well as the rhetoric used by both sides in the dispute of the election result. [For background see the EurasiaNet Insight archive].

He attributed his concern to the chaos in vote-counting, belligerent regional rhetoric (highlighted by Abashidze's asserting the right to manage an Ajarian army) and nationalistic rhetoric as disturbing signs. Russetsky noted the calming voice of the Georgian Orthodox Church and the peaceful behavior of protestors as offsetting factors, holding out hopethat the potential that violence in this case can be averted.

On November 19, protestors again took to the streets of central Tblisi – only this time they demonstrated in support of Eduard Shevardnadze's government. Abashidze's party, Revival, has worked to paint opposition leaders as enemies of the nation, not just of the government. Its parliamentary leader, Jemal Gogitidze, addressed supporters at their rally on November 18. "We will do anything for the happiness of Georgia, for its future and for the sake of letting our children live in a happy country," Gogitidze said, according to BBC Monitoring. "We will not be intimidated and will not back down." Shevardnadze and his allies have said that the opposition wants to take the presidency by force. In another related development, according to the BBC, state broadcasting chief Zaza Shengelia has resigned following criticism of his coverage of the past weeks' events in Georgia.

Outside the government buildings in downtown Tbilisi, where protests and demonstrations continue after the disputed parliamentary elections on November 2, Georgia's capital appears normal. Shops and cafes are open, but in front of parliament, calm vanishes. Protestors remain in front of parliament at all hours. On the radio and in restaurants things are noisier than normal, with men arguing about the news and the country's future. Since November 17, as demonstrators have faced off, a sense of gloom has remained.

The country has no working parliament after opposition parties refused to acknowledge preliminary election results. Three key leaders of the opposition have refused to validate president Eduard Shevardnadze's plan to convene parliament. The Burjanadze-Democrats, named for their association with previous parliament speaker Nino Burjanadze, reiterated on November 18 that they would not enter a parliament shaped by the Central Election Commission's official results. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

This undermines talk coming from some media reports of a potential coalition government. Aslan Abashidze, the leader of the semiautonomous province of Ajaria, remains attached to the president. His Revival party has mounted a counter-rally in central Tbilisi, while opposition parties are calling for marches to the president's house. Demonstrations are orderly, with both sides stressing their interest in peace. According to a Russian news service, government vehicles even brought food and blankets to demonstrators who denounced the opposition.

But many in the country show signs of despair. Some opposition deputies began a hunger strike in front of parliament where the demonstration is taking place. Hunger strikes have also begun in the town of Bolsini and elsewhere. Doctors, teachers and students held a protest gathering in Zugdidi, as an independent television station Rustavi-2 broadcast. Many want to get to Tbilisi, but many roads have been closed. Although most of the Georgian population is still waiting to see who becomes stronger in the confrontation, thousands of people could join the protest marches if Shevardnadze appears to be losing momentum.

The National Movement and Burjanadze-Democrats have said they will accept no compromise short of Shevardnadze's resignation. [For background see the EurasiaNet Insight archive]. Mediators from the United States, including Assistant Secretary of State B. Lynn Pascoe, have not overtly pressed for a particular compromise. Other countries have either shown support for Shevardnadze or spoken vaguely in favor of peaceful resolution; Iran did the latter on November 19.

While Shevardnadze has strengthened foreign support and may well convene a new parliament, fissures in his own camp are showing. Three presidential advisors, all members of the anticorruption policy coordinating council, quit on November 12. Gigi Tevzadze, Nikoloz Oniani and David Kikalishvili said the President is acting against the will of the nation to stay in power by all means, unifying himself with "antidemocratic forces" – a clear allusion to Abashidze. The opposition is counting on wide public support, as evident in their plan to converge national marches. Shevardnadze's failure to break the National Movement and Burjanadze-Democrats may deepen the opposition's resolve. And his alliance with Abashidze has tapped anti-government sentiment.

The pro-government bloc has also sent muddy messages proclaiming itself as a defender of peace. On November 18, defrocked priest Basil Mkalavishvili- awaiting trial for religious persecution- joined a rally whose speakers called the opposition agenda "fascist." [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. At the same rally, doves were released in the name of peace. Pro-presidential demonstrators say they will keep on their current course at least until the weekend.

As protests and counter-protests wear on, side issues dominate reporting and debate. Some reporting has suggested that pro-presidential demonstrators have posited Abashidze as a presidential candidate in 2005. To experts, this undisciplined debate suggests a real danger of degeneration.