“Serious Instability” Possible in Turkmenistan Without Urgent Changes -- Report

Turkmenistan needs to diversify its economy and reverse the "destruction" of its education system, otherwise it faces "serious instability," an International Crisis Group country report bluntly states. It goes on to recommend that the international community apply more consistent and focused pressure on President Saparmurat Niyazov's regime.

The report, titled Repression and Regression in Turkmenistan: A New International Strategy, maintains that the "quiet-diplomacy" strategy for Turkmenistan is a failure. "The international response to Turkmenistan has been weak and poorly coordinated. Niyazov has successfully played different states and organizations against each other," the report, released earlier in November, states.

Since an alleged assassination attempt on Niyazov in 2002, the president, spurred on by "growing paranoia," has expanded authoritarian controls over society, leading to a rise in human rights abuse. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. "The government clamped down even more on dissent, and took a much stronger line against independent activity in civil society," the report says.

Niyazov's efforts to eliminate his enemies, both real and perceived, have extended beyond Turkmenistan's borders, the ICG report says. "Opposition leader Avdy Kuliev was beaten up in Moscow in August 2003 by suspected Turkmen agents, an allegation backed up the next month when Russian authorities reportedly asked eight Turkmen embassy officials to leave the country, supposedly due to suspicions they were planning to murder Moscow-based dissidents," the report said. "In April 2004 Makhamedgeldi Berdiev, a Radio Liberty journalist and human rights activist, was attacked in his home in Moscow and badly injured."

The report, which follows up on a similar study conducted by ICG in 2003, says the economic future for an overwhelming number of Turkmen citizens is grim. The report states that Niyazov's regime relies on the country's abundant natural resources to prop up the police state, adding that energy production is estimated at 30 percent of GDP, but only 20 percent of that revenue is devoted to social spending. The bulk of revenue is under direct presidential control – funds that Niyazov uses to maintain a large security force to intimidate the citizenry. At the same time, Niyazov has devoted sizeable sums to eccentric projects that reinforce his already well-developed cult of personality. In August 2004, for example, he approved a $43-million plan to build an ice palace in the desert outside the capital Ashgabat.

The agricultural sector, which accounts for 25 percent of GDP and which employs over half the labor force, is facing "serious decline" because of mismanagement and counter-productive policies, the report says. Unrealistic government production goals have led to seizures of seed stock, and all farmers must adhere to "Niyazov's decision to sow seeds according to a set schedule without consideration of the weather." The "gradual decline" in agriculture shows no signs of slowing, and the 2004 harvest is predicted to be the worst in years. With about half the young people in Turkmenistan unemployed, the continuing agricultural-sector collapse can lead to a "humanitarian crisis," the report warns.

Recent developments in the educational sphere could have the most damaging long-term consequences for Turkmenistan's development, according to the report. Niyazov has transformed the education system into an instrument of "heavy ideological indoctrination," with the president's "quasi-spiritual guide," or the Ruhnama, serving as the paramount textbook in Turkmen schools. The system, in effect, now emphasizes political reliability over acquiring knowledge. The report cites one example at a vocational college, where 18 of the 34-hours of academic work are devoted to studying the Ruhnama and other tracts devoted to reinforcing Niyazov's personality cult. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"I believe [the reforms] are good for Turkmenbashi [Niyazov] to stay in power. However they are terrible for people, because it makes them dumber