Georgia Hovers on the Brink of Violence

The dispute over Georgia's parliamentary election results seems ready to take a violent turn. Opposition loyalists, saying they were intent on carrying out a "velvet revolution," seized parliament on November 22 and announced they no longer recognized President Eduard Shevardnadze's authority. Shevardnadze denounced the action as an attempted coup and declared a state of emergency.

The opposition takeover of parliament preempted an attempt by Shevardnadze to convene the legislature, which, according to official results from the November 2 election, would have been dominated by pro-presidential forces. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Opposition leaders insisted that the parliamentary vote was rigged and refused to recognize the results. An independent, parallel vote count indicated that the opposition National Movement received the most votes, and that opposition parties outperformed pro-government forces by a significant margin. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives].

Opposition leaders claimed that Shevardnadze no longer possessed the right to lead the country because of his refusal to disavow the official results and call new elections. Nino Burjanadze, a prominent opposition leader who served as speaker of the outgoing parliament, announced on television that she was assuming presidential authority until new elections could be organized. In an attempt to lend legitimacy to the move, Burjanadze cited a Georgian constitutional provision governing presidential succession, under which the parliament speaker is first in line to serve as an interim chief executive in the event the incumbent dies or is not fit to fulfill official duties.

Mikheil Saakashvili, the National Front leader, described the presidential administration as "a corrupt and rotten regime," and indicated that opposition leaders would refuse to negotiate with Shevardnadze.

Shevardnadze, meanwhile, sought to rally the army and interior ministry troops to his side. He announced a state of emergency on state television, and indicated that defense and interior ministry forces could be used to restore order. Security forces reportedly took up positions outside the Interior Ministry building.

Whether the president retains sufficient support within Georgia's security establishment to impose an armed solution on the crisis appeared uncertain, some observers said. Many expressed concern that Georgia was headed for another bout of political violence. The country was consumed by civil warfare during the early 1990s.

For many in Tbilisi, the opposition action did not come as a surprise. In a November 21 interview with Imedi TV, Avtandil Ioseliani, head of the State Intelligence Department, suggested a clash was imminent
"A clash will happen," Ioseliani said. "This is an elementary thing – one side wants to hold the
[first] session [of the newly elected parliament], and the other side does not want to let them hold the session. Do not the opposition leaders say so? So, tell me how it can happen that no clash occurs there? And if the disaster starts here, you will not be able to stop it."

In a separate interview November 21 Georgian National Security Council Secretary Tedo Japaridze criticized the political maneuvering connected with the parliamentary election, which he said featured "major irregularities." Japaridze went on to warn of an imminent threat of armed confrontation, saying that such violence could prove ruinous for the country.

"I want to publicly call on everyone, whoever is planning the bloodshed: if the country plunges into disorder, if blood is shed, none of you should hope that you will achieve your goals. No-one will be able to retain power obtained at the expense of innocent people's blood," Imedi TV quoted Japaridze as saying.