Azerbaijan: More Time in Office for President Aliyev?

Amidst ongoing controversy about government treatment of Azerbaijan's political opposition and independent media, a proposal has been made to extend the Azerbaijani president's term to seven years.

On November 8, Yeni Azerbaijan newspaper, the official mouthpiece of the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party (YAP), published an article promoting the idea of changing the presidential term from five to seven years. The article's author, Aydin Mansimli, wrote that prolonging the time in office would allow President Ilham Aliyev "to manage his work more effectively," and the state to benefit longer from "using his potential."

The author proposed that the term extension be arranged through a referendum, with amendments to the constitution coming later. The examples of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, which have also recently held referenda to lengthen their presidents' respective terms of office to seven years, were cited to support the idea.

Despite the proposal's potential political implications, however, senior YAP members have so far not responded to the article. The president himself, as well as his chief of staff and other government officials, have also not commented on the proposal.

So far, the only pro-government group to support the article is a bloc of several small pro-governmental parties called the Advisory Council that has indicated it would support the proposal's discussion in parliament. "In societies like Azerbaijan, the president is not able to carry out all his programs within five years," commented Mammad Alizade, chairman of the Majlis.

Meanwhile, reaction from the opposition has been heated.

Musavat Party Deputy Chairman Arif Hajiyev argues that the government used the article to test public opinion about extending President Aliyev's term. "But I hope it will not happen in Azerbaijan," Hajiyev said. "Even Russia did not use this model. Such models work in countries like Nigeria or Turkmenistan."

Popular Front Party Deputy Chairman Gulamguseyn Alibeyli contends that Yeni Azerbaijan floated the idea "because they are afraid that Ilham Aliyev will not get public support at the 2008 presidential elections." A "four or five-year-term is normal for a president in a democratic country," he added.

While President Ilham Aliyev's position on the proposal is not known, time exists for the change to be made before the 2008 presidential elections, commented Alasgar Mammadli, a Baku-based lawyer and a board member of the Azerbaijan Lawyers' Association. If the president decides to put the question of a term extension to a national referendum, the sole way of amending the constitution, the Constitutional Court would have a month to decide whether a referendum could be held on the proposed question, Mammadli explained. If the Court agrees that the referendum would be valid, the president must issue a decree on the referendum at least 120 days before the scheduled vote. The extension, however, would apply only to President Aliyev's second term if he is re-elected, Mammadli added.

So far, however, local experts are sceptical about the likelihood of such an extension. The Yeni Azerbaijan article has more to do with the author's own "bootlicking" than with an accurate reflection of the plans of Azerbaijan's political elite, they say. "It is just an article which does not mean anything," commented Rasim Musabekov, an independent Baku-based political analyst. "I do not believe that Ilham Aliyev is seriously considering the possibility of an extension of the presidential term."

Another Baku-based expert, Ilgar Mammadov, echoed that view. "Most probably it is just the journalist's idea. In this case, Ilham Aliyev himself will soon express his objection to it," Mammadov said.

Official support for the initiative would be required before any serious public discussion of an extended presidential term could ensue, he continued. "If it turns out that the president himself is ready to extend his term it will mean that Aliyev wants to protect himself against possible international pressure at the 2008 presidential elections," Mammadov said.

The article coincides with a string of actions that have sparked concern among international observers about the government's tolerance for opposition groups and independent media.

On November 2, Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe monitoring committee co-rapporteur Tony Lloyd (United Kingdom) expressed puzzlement at the ongoing prohibition of demonstrations in the city center, terming as "nonsense" a government statement that the demonstration was denied permission since officials are already working on opposition protestors' demands.

Authorities have not authorized any opposition rally in central Baku since November 26, 2005, when police forcefully broke up an attempted sit-down demonstration by the opposition election bloc Azadlig against the 2005 parliamentary election results. [For details, see EurasiaNet's Azerbaijan: Elections 2005.] The Baku city authorities had published the list of the places where political forces may hold rallies and manifestations in the capital in the end of October. All sites authorized by the Baku city government are located in the capital's outskirts. An attempt by several Popular Front Party members to picket the presidential administration building on November 16 ended in clashes with security forces and the arrest of more than 20 PFPA activists. The government responded that the arrests occurred because the demonstration was not authorized.

In response, the political bloc Azadlig (Freedom), which unites four opposition parties, has announced that it may opt to boycott the 2008 presidential elections if "democratic changes" do not occur, the pro-government Day.az reported on November 16. Government representatives have not commented on the announcement.

Meanwhile, controversy continues to build. A tussle over licensing requirements for foreign broadcasters and Azerbaijani media outlets which rebroadcast foreign broadcasters' content has gained the most international attention, but a debate about an attempt to evict opposition media from a downtown building in Baku could have long-term domestic repercussions. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive.]

The two-storey building, which was granted to the opposition Azadlig newspaper free of charge by the Baku city government in 1992, houses the opposition Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan, the pro-opposition Turan news agency, the opposition daily Bizim Yol and several pro-opposition non-governmental organizations. The State Property Committee has asked that the newspaper evict all organizations using the building and pay more than $30,000 in fines. The case is now before the Azerbaijani Economics Court. A hunger strike by opposition journalists and political and human rights activists protesting the government's alleged suppression of the media has been held in the Azadlig building for more than three weeks.

The hunger strike prompted representatives from the US and British embassies, along with the Baku mission of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, to issue a joint statement on November 15 that stated that "recent developments indicate a deterioration in the general environment for independent media here in Azerbaijan." The representatives called on the government to resolve the dispute "in accordance with due legal process and in a manner which does not negatively impact the freedom of the independent media."

The government, however, maintains that the State Property Committee's claim is legally grounded. The State Property Committee says that it has offered three new buildings for Azadlig, Turan news agency and the Popular Front Party in a location on the outskirts of Baku. The offer has been rejected.

Speaking with journalists on November 16, Ali Hasanov, head of the presidential administration's political department, put the dispute down to political maneuvers by the opposition. Azadlig newspaper has been ignoring requests to sign a leasing agreement for the building since 1996 or 1997, he said, and is attempting to "turn these legal demands" for eviction into "a political show."