Shevardnadze Strives to Retain Support of Security

Reports that military units in Georgia are going over to the opposition side are raising doubts about President Eduard Shevardnadze's ability to utilize security forces to prop up his teetering administration. Opposition leaders are trying to increase the pressure on the president, urging supporters, who already are in possession of parliament and the state chancellery, to seize other government buildings both in Tbilisi and in Georgia's regions.

Meanwhile, Russia is leading an effort to defuse the crisis. Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov arrived in Tbilisi late November 22. He later met with Shevardnadze and opposition leaders to explore a possible compromise end to the political standoff, which has the potential to spark civil warfare.

"Georgia's fate is a matter of concern for us [Russia]," Ivanov told Imedi TV upon his arrival in Tbilisi. "There are no issues that cannot be resolved through a dialogue, through compromises and, I repeat, in accordance with current Georgian law and the constitution. We believe that this is the best, the only right way for Georgia."

Many opposition leaders have in the past expressed skepticism about Russia's intentions, believing that Moscow seeks to reestablish a controlling influence over Tbilisi. Yet, in this instance, opposition leaders praised Ivanov's mission. Zurab Zhvania, a leader of the Burjanadze-Democrats, said the opposition "welcomes Russia's desire to hold consultations and expresses its satisfaction with the fact that Russia is not interfering in [Georgia's] internal affairs and is helping to resolve the political crisis,"
the Russian RIA news agency reported.

The crisis has its roots in Georgia's disputed parliamentary election on November 2. Opposition leaders refuse to recognize the results of the vote, which they insist was rigged. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. When Shevardnadze attempted to convene the new parliament November 22, opposition loyalists stormed the chamber, preventing the president from swearing in the new MPs. Opposition leaders also announced they no longer recognized Shevardnadze's authority. Shevardnadze later described the action as a coup, and declared a state of emergency. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Russian television reported that Georgian army tanks and other armored vehicles were being brought into Tbilisi to defend strategic government facilities. Shevardnadze, who has established his crisis-management headquarters at his official residence in suburban Tbilisi, warned during a televised interview "a civil war may start tomorrow." But the president and other top government officials have stressed that they aim to resolve the crisis peacefully. Opposition leaders have also insisted that they seek a peaceful resolution.

Interior Minister Koba Narchemashvili said the ministry's security troops remained loyal to Shevardnadze and were ready to obey presidential orders issued under the state-of-emergency guidelines, the Kavkasia Press news agency reported. Defense Minister David Tevzadze also indicated that the army was prepared to intervene, if necessary.

However, there have been numerous reports of military and security units declaring support for the opposition. According to Western new agency, for example, a 120-member National Guard unit declared that it would not follow orders from Shevardnadze. Likewise, a special forces unit in the city of Zugdidi declared its support for the opposition and announced it would head to Tbilisi to support the effort to force Shevardnadze's resignation, the Russian Interfax news agency reported.

In a further indication that Georgia's security establishment was divided, the Prime-News agency reported that some Shevardnadze supporters were accusing the Minister of State Security Valeri Khaburdzania of supporting the opposition. Presidential backers alleged that Security Ministry agents enabled the opposition to seize parliament.

Mikheil Saakashvili, the leader of the National Movement and the principle catalyst for opposition action, indicated in an address broadcast by Rustavi-2 television that he had the support of a significant segment of the defense and security establishment. "My dear people, my compatriots, we have almost achieved the victory. The police and the Internal Troops have taken the people's side. Shevardnadze failed to issue an order to open fire against a peaceful rally. The entire world is on our side," Saakashvili said.