Eurasia Insight:
CIS STATES VIEW EVENTS IN GEORGIA WITH CAUTION
11/25/03

CIS states are warily monitoring developments in Tbilisi, evidently worried that the popular protests that forced Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze from power could have adverse repercussions for incumbent leaders across the region. An emergency meeting of CIS foreign ministers on November 25 expressed concern that recent events in Tbilisi could "jeopardize stability not only in Georgia, but in the region in general."

Since gaining independence in 1991, most CIS states, especially those in Central Asia, have shunned democratization and have turned in a more authoritarian direction. For many CIS leaders, the change of power in Georgia appears to set an unwelcome precedent, in which mass protests are used to outflank authoritarian-minded efforts to rig elections that buttress the existing order. [For background on the Georgian parliamentary election see the Eurasia Insight archive].

CIS foreign ministers, who met in the Ukrainian capital Kiev, issued a statement that urged Georgia’s provisional leadership to keep the country’s political transition on "an exclusively constitutional path." Some regional political observers view such terminology as a diplomatically encrypted way of expressing disapproval over developments in Georgia.

Comments by Uzbek President Islam Karimov perhaps best represent the general view of CIS states towards the Georgian political transition. Karimov said in a November 24 interview with Uzbek television that developments in Tbilisi were a source of "serious concern."

Karimov refrained from offering any assessment on Georgia’s new leadership team, which has expressed a desire to hasten civil society development in the country. "I am in favor of a situation where all events take place in accordance with the constitution, in line with the country’s laws and international law," the Uzbek leader said.

In separate televised comments, Karimov offered effusive praise for former Georgian president Eduard Shevardnadze. "He [Shevardnadze] has confirmed that he is a man who has always struggled for peace, democracy and stability," Karimov said. "In this regard, he deserves great respect."

The fallout from Georgian developments could hit neighboring states in the Caucasus – Armenia and Azerbaijan – the hardest. Both countries held presidential elections this year that were widely condemned by international monitors as tainted. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives]. The Georgian opposition’s ability to force Shevardnadze from power could possibly make it more difficult for Robert Kocharian’s administration in Armenia and Ilham Aliyev’s team in Azerbaijan to govern.

The Georgian political transition is clearly unwelcome to the Aliyev administration in Baku. During the midst of the political crisis in Tbilisi, Ilham Aliyev telephoned Shevardnadze on November 22 to offer Azerbaijan’s support for "the legally-elected president of friendly and fraternal Georgia," Azerbaijani state television reported.

Aliyev’s concern over Tbilisi developments is understandable, given that it appears to have energized the political opposition in Azerbaijan. In sharp contrast to the restrained Azerbaijani government reaction, opposition leaders in Baku hailed Shevardnadze’s ouster. Isa Gambar, leader of the Musavat Party, characterized the Tbilisi events as "another [step] towards democracy and a breakthrough in conducting democratic elections in the region," the Turan news agency reported.

Both Gambar and Etibar Mamedov, leader of the Azerbaijan National Independence Party, said the Aliyev administration’s expression of support for Shevardnadze was "the wrong decision."

The Armenian government appeared more open to the changes that have occurred in Tbilisi. The comments of Armenian officials, like those of their CIS counterparts, were generally cautious and emphasized a need for Georgia to restore constitutional order. However, Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian told the Mediamax news agency that the Armenian administration would "work with the acting president" of Georgia.

Meanwhile, Armenian opposition leaders voiced strong support for Georgia’s provisional leaders. Stepan Demirchian, leader of the opposition Justice bloc, called events in Tbilisi a "victory for the Georgian people."

"The latest events in Georgia can have a psychological impact on Armenia and [Armenian] authorities, headed by the illegitimate president [Kocharian], must draw conclusions," Mediamax quoted Demirchian as saying. "The Armenian opposition will also win soon."