Armenia: Scant Chance for Sargsyan-Ter Petrosian Pact, Analysts Say

Controversy still surrounds ex-President Levon Ter Petrosian's statement that Armenia's attempted reconciliation with Turkey rendered President Serzh Sargsyan "a realistic and decisive statesman worthy of the 21st century." Some see the remarks as a bid to make the country's largest opposition group still appear relevant, but few believe that actual cooperation between the two longtime political foes is likely.

Despite the focus on his general support for Sargsyan's Turkey policy, Ter-Petrosian's comments, delivered in a November 11 speech to Armenian National Congress (ANC) activists, appeared double-edged. To explain his support for Sargsyan's policy, Ter Petrosian cited the example of a 17th century "ambitious and vainglorious" priest, Eghiazar, who allegedly became patriarch of the Armenian Apostolic Church through intrigues that threatened national unity. The Church, in Ter Petrosian's telling, let Eghiazar stay as patriarch to avoid additional trouble for the nation.

"Why would Serzh Sargsyan think that Armenians are unable to display once again such wisdom and open-mindedness for the sake of national goals?" Ter Petrosian asked supporters.

But if the Eghiazar allegory contained a barb, the ruling Republican Party of Armenia has given no public sign of noticing it.

Republican Party of Armenia spokesperson Eduard Sharmazanov commented that he is glad that Ter Petrosian assesses President Sargsyan's work seriously.

"I'm very glad that the leader of the Armenian National Congress could face the truth and assess the president's policy from a political viewpoint," Sharmazanov said.

Many opposition members, including the nationalist Armenian Revolutionary Federation-Dashnaktsutiun, have expressed suspicion about the reasons behind Ter Petrosian's statement after months of demands from the ex-president for Sargsyan to resign. The result has been a swatting match between the Dashnaks, as they are known, and Ter Petrosian supporters over which side allegedly sold out to the government.

One political analyst believes that while Ter Petrosian does not share the government's "ideology," "[i]n fact, he has refused the option of revolution, and is trying to find something in common with the authorities."

"The government is in rather a tight spot in terms of Armenian-Turkish relations, and Levon Ter Petrosian might be trying to find his place in this play," independent political analyst Yervand Bozoian commented.

One senior Ter Petrosian supporter, however, counters that many outsiders want to make pragmatic hay out of the ex-president's remarks.

"Everybody found in his speech the phrase that most benefited them, taken out of context," said Suren Surenyants, a member of the political council of the Republic Party. "There is nothing reprehensible in the fact that Levon Ter Petrosian suggests the government should . . . take some steps to promote public unity. This is nothing like cooperation or making a deal with them."

Armenian National Congress (ANC) senior member Levon Zurabian earlier commented to reporters that collaboration with the government was possible if Sargsyan released opposition prisoners, punished "those responsible for the March 1 events [when a clash between police and protestors against Sargsyan's 2008 election resulted in 10 deaths - ed]" and met other opposition demands. He stressed, though, that the ANC is not now cooperating with the government.

Members of the Armenian National Congress declined to discuss their policy position further on rapprochement with Turkey - or with Sargsyan - instead referring EurasiaNet to Ter Petrosian's November 11 speech.

Manvel Sarkisian, a political expert at Yerevan's Armenian Center for National and International Studies, agrees with Surenyants' analysis of the speech. Ter Petrosian's story about Eghiazar the priest suggests that Sargsyan has no legitimate claim to power, he says.

"In this case, Serzh Sargsyan may start 'bargaining' himself and set the political prisoners free," Sarkisian said. "In any case, Levon Ter Petrosian will not cooperate with the authorities."

Some form of cooperation with the opposition could benefit the government, even though the days of Ter Petrosian's mass protest rallies are long past, added Bozoian. Artur Baghdasarian, head of the Rule of Law Party and a onetime outspoken opposition leader, was effectively neutralized with the offer to become secretary of Armenia's National Security Council, a post he has held since 2008.

"Currently, the opposition poses no danger, and the authorities could benefit from getting cozy with them," he said.

For now, that scenario looks remote. At a November 20 press conference, Republican Party parliamentary faction leader Galust Sahakian stated that while the ruling party supports the idea of "direct cooperation" with the ANC, "[w]e are not going to urge them [to join us] in a political sense."

"That's unacceptable for us," he said.