Eurasia Insight:
KYRGYZSTAN: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION CAMPAIGN KICKS OFF
Daniel Sershen: 11/26/07

Kyrgyzstan’s parliamentary election campaign season officially opened November 26 with 12 parties vying for legislative seats. Analysts say a number of electoral hurdles, coupled with the short lead time, may be tilting the playing field toward incumbent authority.

The December 16 election will be Kyrgyzstan's first conducted under a proportional system that asks voters to select a party, rather than cast ballots for individual candidates. The changes were approved in a disputed referendum on October 21. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Ten of the 22 parties that applied for registration were disqualified, some for not adhering to new rules that require candidate lists to include at least 30 percent women and 15 percent minorities and young politicians. The parties that did manage to register face a daunting double threshold to enter parliament: they must attract 5 percent of the country's registered voters nationwide, plus at least one-half of 1 percent of the electorate in each of Kyrgyzstan's seven regions and two main cities.

Although many parties remain associated with specific personalities as in the past, the shift to a proportional system has sparked some consolidation among Kyrgyzstan's myriad political groups. The new pro-presidential movement, Ak Zhol, absorbed dozens of smaller parties and independent politicians after its founding on October 15, leading to speculation that President Kurmanbek Bakiyev could obtain an outright governing majority in the next parliament. Any party or coalition controlling a majority of the seats will win the right to select the prime minister.

According to Tamerlan Ibraimov, Director of Kyrgyzstan's Center for Political and Legal Studies, Ak Zhol goes into the elections with a "significant advantage" as the party in power. But, he added, Ak Zhol's roots are not as deep as similar pro-presidential groupings in neighboring states.

Ishenbai Abdurazakov, a political analyst and former state secretary, agreed. "One party will achieve dominance in Kyrgyzstan's parliament only by way of falsification," he told Ferghana.ru on November 17.

Government officials – such as Cholpon Bayekova, Chair of the Constitutional Court, and State Secretary Adakhan Madumarov, both of whom recently resigned to campaign, as required by law – top Ak Zhol's list of candidates.

Arrayed against them are two opposition groups, including the Ata-Meken party of former Speaker of Parliament Omurbek Tekebayev, which absorbed its ally, Ak-Shumkar. The other opposition grouping, former Prime Minister Feliks Kulov's Ar-Namys party, enjoys substantial support in the north of the country but was weakened by a failed round of protests in April. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Two additional parties have a good chance to enter the new parliament, observers say. Kyrgyzstan's Communists, who have supported Bakiyev in the past, retain a small but reliable following.

The Social Democrats (SDPK) – led by acting Prime Minister Almazbek Atambayev, whose government will serve temporarily until one is chosen under the new constitutional formula – may serve as the swing vote. Nominally in opposition, the SDPK has backed Bakiyev since he appointed Atambayev in March 2007, and could continue to do so if the price is right, said Ibraimov. "The SDPK plays the role of loyal opposition, which is willing to be under Ak Zhol's thumb and play their games. But if the SDPK's leaders are pushed out of power, then the SDPK could quickly cross into the opposition camp," Ibraimov said.

Civic activists monitoring the election process have already warned of a number of violations, including early campaigning by some parties and the stacking of local election commissions in favor of incumbent authorities. On November 21, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) announced plans to field 20 long-term observers and about 250 election-day monitors. Several other international groups also plan to observe the vote.

Speaking in South Korea on November 20, Atambayev said a falsified result could prove a "Pyrrhic victory" for authorities, the Kyrgyz news agency AKIpress reported. "We should not go down that route when there will be a one-party parliament in the country," he warned, saying it could lead to a repeat of the voter protests in March 2005 that brought Bakiyev to power. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Many parties, including Ak Zhol, have argued that the regional quota is particularly burdensome, and something that could result in an outcome that does not accurately reflect voter preferences. The Central Election Commission announced on November 19 that the requisite half percentage point would be calculated using the total number of voters nationwide, rather than regional voter lists. This means that parties need to get the same amount – approximately 13,500 votes – in each region, a difficult task in less populated areas such as Naryn, Talas, and the city of Osh, each of which have fewer than 145,000 registered voters.

Fredrik Sjoberg is a political scientist and research fellow at the OSCE Academy in the capital, Bishkek, who has studied Kyrgyz voting patterns over the last four elections. Speaking to EurasiaNet after presenting his research at the American University of Central Asia on November 23, he called the regional threshold ruling "a mockery of all that democratic elections could possibly be."

Sjoberg said Kyrgyzstan's recent elections have been "surprisingly competitive on a local level" based on the number of viable candidates and the frequency of incumbent losses. Judging by the revolutionary discontent after the fraudulent 2005 election, he said, it would be "very unwise" for the authorities to rely on a strategy of excluding competitive parties or falsifying results this time around. "The combination of angry candidates and disenfranchised voters," he said, could be "explosive."

Bakiyev ally Daniyar Usenov, the mayor of Bishkek, appears to be trying to stay one step ahead of any future protests. On November 22, he announced that the city would construct a new space for rallies in a park away from the heart of the city. To date, Bishkek's frequent political demonstrations have taken place on the main square, within shouting distance of the government offices.

"People seeking to exercise their constitutional right to protest will have normal conditions, and a million residents of Bishkek, in their turn, will receive the right to live in a peaceful and quiet city," Usenov said, according to local news agency 24.kg.

Editor’s Note: Daniel Sershen is a freelance journalist based in Bishkek.