Turnout Controversy Clouds Armenian Constitutional Referendum

Opposition forces in Armenia are protesting against what they say was a rigged referendum, in which constitutional amendments were supposedly approved by 93 percent of voters.

The main opposition complaint concerns the turnout figure for the November 27 referendum. Officials claim over 65 percent of eligible voters cast ballots. Meanwhile, opposition estimates suggest turnout was somewhere between 16-21 percent. The turnout issue is critical because under Armenian law at least one-third of eligible voters must support a referendum proposal for it to be adopted.

Opposition leaders alleged that officials engaged in massive ballot stuffing. "Armenian leaders should be included in the Guinness Book of World Records for the scale of fraud," the Arminfo news agency quoted Viktor Dallakian, a leader of the Justice bloc, as saying on November 28.

International observers confirmed that the referendum featured instances of abuse, but they stopped short of calling for the invalidation of the results. A statement issued by the Council of Europe's 14-member observer delegation said the referendum was marred by fraud and ballot-stuffing. "The extremely low voting activity did not correspond to the high figures provided by the electoral commissions," the statement said. The US State Department echoed the Council of Europe's concerns. "We call on the government of Armenia to investigate Council of Europe observer reports of serious abuses and fraud," a State Department statement said.

The Council of Europe observers suggested that an opposition boycott of the referendum abetted fraud. "The transparency of the referendum was further hampered by the decision of the parliamentary opposition to call on their members to withdraw from the electoral commissions," the group's report read. In addition, the Council of Europe statement said the lack of outside observers played a role in the irregularities surrounding the referendum. Armenian authorities did not to invite an observer mission from the OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR). In a television interview shortly before the referendum, President Robert Kocharian expressed the opinion that ODIHR didn't have a mandate to monitor referenda.

Garegin Azarian, the head of Armenia's Central Electoral Commission, was dismissive of the opposition complaints about turnout. According to a report distributed by the Noyan Tapan news agency, Azarian maintained that the opposition leaders' decision to refrain from participating in the activities of election commissions "deprived them of the right to present special opinions and complaints."

Despite the assertion of widespread fraud, Council of Europe observers, speaking to members of the Armenian media on November 28, indicated that the result was probably valid – with turnout clearing the one-third barrier. The observers, however, offered no evidence to support their position.

In the weeks leading up to the referendum, the Council of Europe, the European Union and the United States all backed the constitutional changes proposed in the referendum. The amendments sought to expand citizens' civil rights, and to transfer power from the executive branch to the legislative branch. The amendments were opposed almost from the start by opposition leaders, who argued that Kocharian's administration and the parliament lacked the legitimacy to alter the constitution. The opposition based its stance on its contention that the presidential and parliamentary elections of 2003 were rigged. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

While disapproving of the government's conduct of the referendum, the United States and EU nations appear reluctant to align themselves with the opposition. The State Department statement, for example, reaffirmed US support for passage of the constitutional amendments, arguing that they held the potential "[to strengthen] democratic institutions in Armenia."

It also appears that the opposition attempt to use the referendum controversy to launch a fresh political offensive against the Kocharian administration is failing to garner significant popular support. Local observers contend that most Armenians have become politically apathetic in recent years. An opposition rally November 28 against the referendum ballot-stuffing drew between 5,000-10,000 people, seemingly confirming the notion that the population is at present largely indifferent to political issues.