Kyrgyzstan: Prime Minister Pushed Aside as Parliamentary Election Approaches

Former opposition leader Almazbek Atambayev resigned as acting prime minister on November 28, two days after the launch of Kyrgyzstan's parliamentary election campaign. Speculation in the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek, was rife on the reasons for Atambayev's departure, which apparently came at the behest of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev.

The selection of Atambayev as prime minister in March 2007 – just months after he and his Social Democratic (SDPK) party had helped lead opposition protests – was seen as an acknowledgment of the opposition's strength. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. His dismissal may mean the reverse: that Bakiyev and his supporters in the Ak Zhol party are increasingly confident that the December 16 elections will result in a decisive victory for their side.

"Atambayev was a compromise figure, and Kurmanbek Bakiyev, as a politician, successfully used him like a politician," analyst Mars Sariyev told local news agency AKIpress on November 28. "There is a high probability that the Ak Zhol party will win" and choose its own prime minister, he continued, which would have rendered Atambayev "a political corpse."

Acting First Deputy Prime Minister Iskenderbek Aidaraliyev, who until November 27 had served as governor of the Jalalabad region, will replace Atambayev. He and the government will serve in a caretaker capacity until the elections produce a parliament based on party affiliation; the majority party or coalition in the new body will then select a prime minister.

According to Shairbek Juraev of the International and Comparative Politics Department at the American University of Central Asia, Bakiyev was seeking to avoid having to share the built-in advantages of incumbency with the Social Democrats. The "departure of Atambayev, I guess, was one step in preventing SDPK [from] stealing some votes from Ak Zhol," he said.

Edil Baisalov, executive secretary of the Social Democrats, said Atambayev could have resigned voluntarily to compete in the elections, but chose to stay on to help ensure a fair vote. That commitment got him fired, he said. "He said several times [to] the face of President Bakiyev that the Ak Zhol party and government officials were interfering with the election process," Baisalov said. "As a party in power [taking such a stance], we were quite a danger," he added.

Bakiyev praised Atambayev at a government meeting on November 28, calling him a "model of responsible opposition," according to the president's press service. "After a short rest," Bakiyev continued, "he will return to government service."

Bakiyev's comments led several observers to speculate that perhaps the two politicians had made a deal to share control of the future parliament. Under one scenario, Sariyev suggested, Ak Zhol and the Social Democrats would "win" most or all of the seats. Atambayev would then serve as leader of a pliant opposition, leaving less moderate opposition parties such as Ata Meken out in the cold.

"Outwardly, such a parliament would look balanced," Sariyev said.

Baisalov dismissed suggestions of a conspiracy that involved vote-rigging. "This is made up by Ata Meken and others. Politics is not that complicated," he said. "There are no secret agreements."

Baisalov said the SDPK would continue to steer a middle-of-the-road course between Ata Meken and Ak Zhol, adding that Social Democrats would be open to forging a parliamentary coalition with either Bakiyev's allies or his opponents. "Now we don't owe our vote to anyone – we have a free mandate to choose our allies," he said.

Atambayev's unceremonious departure may give the Social Democrats pause before they again sit down at the bargaining table, however. "All the Kyrgyz people have seen that Bakiyev does not keep his word," Baisalov said. "Atambayev was the last person – the last naìve person – to believe him."