EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - New Partnership with European Union Prompts Hopes in Armenia

EURASIA INSIGHT

NEW PARTNERSHIP WITH EUROPEAN UNION PROMPTS HOPES IN ARMENIA
Haroutiun Khachatrian 11/30/06

Armenians have welcomed the recent launch of a program to foster stronger ties between the European Union and Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, but questions persist in Yerevan about what will be the actual results of this new partnership.

The November 14 adoption of the European Union (EU)-Armenia Action Plan for the bloc’s European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) program is one of the few recent topics that has met with apparent satisfaction from both the government and the opposition.

The plan sets eight priority areas to be addressed as part of Armenia’s cooperation with the EU over the next five years: strengthening democracy and rule of law; enhancing respect for human rights; continuing economic development and poverty reduction; improving the climate for private investors; streamlining economic policy and policy administration; creating an energy strategy that would include the decommissioning of the Medzamor nuclear power plant; working towards a peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan; and expanding opportunities for regional cooperation.

While the schedule for implementation of Armenia’s Action Plan will not be completed until January 2007, the government is already emphasizing its commitment to cooperation with the EU. Most notably, the Respublika Armenii (Republic of Armenia) newspaper, a Russian-language government mouthpiece, wrote in its November 15 issue that Armenia has asked the EU to monitor its implementation of the Action Plan once a year, instead of once every two years, as is standard.

The plan notes that "[t]he level of ambition of the relationship will depend on the degree of Armenia’s commitment to common values as well as its capacity to implement jointly agreed priorities, in compliance with international and European norms and principles."

Already, though, the government is focusing on the possible rewards for demonstrating that commitment. In a recent interview given to the Noyan Tapan news agency, Deputy Foreign Minister Armen Baibourtian noted that a free trade agreement with the EU could be one of the results of the Action Plan. The Armenian government does not rule out that such an agreement could be signed even before the completion of Armenia’s Action Plan in 2011, the deputy minister said.

The potential economic benefits of closer ties with the EU have attracted widespread support, but, not unexpectedly, many ordinary Armenians have also displayed special interest in how the documents signed in Brussels will address the question of Nagorno Karabakh. While in Brussels, Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov met to discuss the Karabakh conflict as a precursor to a November 28 encounter between Armenian President Robert Kocharian and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev during the Commonwealth of Independent States summit in Minsk. While President Aliyev has stated that the negotiations have now entered their final phase, Armenian media reports about the meeting, held at the Russian embassy in Minsk, imply that no progress was made. The meeting was the third between the two leaders this year.

The Armenian and Azerbaijani Action Plans include almost identical language about goals for resolving the Karabakh conflict. The Armenian plan cites a "[c]ontinuing strong EU commitment to support the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, drawing on the instruments at the EU’s disposal � and in close consultation with the OSCE [Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe]." One distinction could be cause for future debate: the Actions section of the Azerbaijani agreement mentions accomplishing this task while observing "the relevant UN Security Council resolutions," but the Armenian document mentions negotiation on the basis of international law, "including the principle of self-determination of peoples."

During a November 18 public discussion on Armenia’s ties with the European Union held at the Urbat (Friday) Club in Yerevan, analysts, however, were not optimistic about the impact of the Neighborhood Policy on the conflict. At best, they said, the EU could act as an "extinguisher" for tensions between the two sides.

One analyst, however, expressed concern that, in other regards, Armenia may find itself left behind in building a strong relationship with the EU, compared to Georgia and Azerbaijan. Georgia may secure more rapid integration because of its government’s strong pro-West orientation, contended Washington-based political analyst Richard Giragosian, while Azerbaijan could prove attractive because of its energy resources.

Giragosian, however, saw geopolitical benefits for the EU in extending its European Neighbor Policy to the South Caucasus. The program allows the EU to bypass Turkey, a regional player whose EU membership ambitions have proven problematic, and to have contact with Iran, potentially via Armenia, a long-time Iranian ally. "The formula is: �One step beyond Turkey, one step closer to Iran’," Giragosian said.

Some observers saw other distinctions. Considerable attention has focused recently on Georgia’s ambitions to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). One opposition leader, Shavarsh Kocharian, head of the National Democratic Party, suggested at the discussion that Georgia might, in fact, try to use its NATO membership campaign to advance its ambitions to join the EU.

Strengthening democratic development could prove a surer way to advance Armenia’s relationship with the EU, Kocharian continued. Like other opposition members, however, Kocharian expressed doubts that the government would fulfill its pledges to strengthen democracy and the rule of law along with economic growth. Other discussion participants worried that Armenia’s opposition is not strong enough to press for such changes.

Political analyst Giragosian shared Kocharian’s viewpoint, saying that the West may reach the limit of its patience with Armenia if the country’s spring 2007 parliamentary elections fail to meet democratic standards. "Armenia now faces greater expectations for clean elections. The key question is whether the Armenian authorities understand that that the expectations of the West are higher this time," he said.

At a July 2006 Republican Party of Armenia conference, Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian predicted that the May 2007 vote will prove Armenia’s "best elections" to date.

Editor�s Note: Haroutiun Khachatrian is a Yerevan-based writer specializing in economic and political affairs.

The Central Eurasia Project aims, through its website, meetings, papers, and grants, to foster a more informed debate about the social, political and economic developments of the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is a program of the Open Society Institute-New York. The Open Society Institute-New York is a private operating and grantmaking foundation that promotes the development of open societies around the world by supporting educational, social, and legal reform, and by encouraging alternative approaches to complex and controversial issues.

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