Leaders of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan Press Ahead with Bilateral Thaw

The presidents of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, whose mutual animosity has been well documented in recent years, are striving to revive a functional relationship between their neighboring Central Asian states. However, efforts to implement measures adopted during a mid-November bilateral summit appear to already have hit snags.

Just two years ago, Turkmen-Uzbek relations were experiencing a deep chill, after Turkmen leader Saparmurat Niyazov accused Uzbekistan of aiding an assassination attempt against him. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. But at a one-day bilateral summit November 19 in the Uzbek city of Bukhara, Niyazov and Uzbek President Islam Karimov announced they had resolved all problems that had plagued bilateral relations since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. "There are no disputed problems which could give rise to any suspicion or doubt about mutual relations," Niyazov said during a joint news conference.

During the summit, Niyazov and Karimov agreed on a framework for sharing regional water resources, and signed agreements regulating border-crossing procedures for Turkmen and Uzbek citizens. The agreements, both leaders hope, will help spur economic development and bilateral trade. Karimov said the agreement "will perfectly regulate our relations." Niyazov, meanwhile, vowed that Uzbeks and Turkmen living in border areas could now "feel secure" and "not worry about their future."

Tension along the Turkmen-Uzbek frontier has heightened dramatically in recent years, driven in large part by cross-border smuggling. Helping to support Niyazov's authoritarian regime, the Turkmen government has kept prices for many basic goods artificially low, taking advantage of the country's abundant natural resources. Many Uzbeks have resorted to smuggling Turkmen goods, especially petrol, back into Uzbekistan, which maintains punitive tariffs on many imported items. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The smuggling problem has reportedly caused several shooting incidents along the border, with Turkmen border guards opening fire on people suspected of engaging in illicit activity.

Shortly before the summit, an incident reportedly occurred at the Tuyamuyun hydro-electric station situated along the Turkmen-Uzbek border, in which 25 Uzbek police officers, detailed to provide security at the facility, were detained by Turkmen border guards. The Uzbek officers supposedly spent 32 days in custody.

The summit and the subsequent agreements appear to have been hastily arranged. Karimov reportedly initiated the effort to foster a Turkmen-Uzbek thaw. Local analysts believe he had compelling reasons to seek a meeting with the mercurial Turkmen leader. For one, cross-border smuggling has severely undermined the Karimov administration's effort to maintain a tight grip on Uzbekistan's economy. Uzbek authorities are also worried that one of Niyazov's grandiose construction projects -- a massive reservoir, dubbed the Golden Lake – would drain water from the shared Amu Darya River to the point that it would endanger Uzbekistan's cotton industry.

Uzbekistan has also been facing mounting international pressure over its poor human rights record, and its reluctance to implement economic reforms. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Settling disputes with neighboring Turkmenistan would potentially eliminate a major distraction for Karimov, enabling him to devote more time to dealing with his international critics.

For his part, Niyazov seemed to welcome the chance to improve ties with Uzbekistan. The visit to Bukhara marked one of the few instances that Niyazov has ventured beyond his country's borders in recent years. Turkmen officials have appeared concerned about Uzbek efforts to develop the Kokdumalak oil field, which straddles the two countries' frontier.

In addition, in meeting with Karimov, Niyazov appeared to see an opportunity to strengthen the authoritarian system in Turkmenistan. According to a report broadcast by the Deutche Welle radio, Uzbek authorities gave assurances to their Turkmen counterparts that they would monitor the movements of Turkmen citizens traveling in Uzbekistan, and would alert Ashgabat to any perceived "suspicious steps" undertaken by Turkmen citizens on Uzbek soil.

Both sides seem intent on promoting a bilateral thaw. Underscoring this is the fact that on December 1 the two countries launched an effort to demarcate their 1,800-kilometer frontier. Nevertheless, the measures to ease border-crossing hassles agreed on in Bukhara remain in effect. Uzbek citizens, interviewed in a border area by a EurasiaNet correspondent, said their ability to enter Turkmenistan legally remained restricted.

In addition, the agreements do not appear to have stemmed the steady flow of smuggled goods from Turkmenistan into Uzbekistan. On November 26, Niyazov reportedly reprimanded top officials in border provinces over the high volume of smuggling. Dissatisfaction related to the smuggling issue may help explain why Niyazov on December 1 suddenly sacked the governor of the Dashoguz region, Isanguly Gulmyradov, citing "grave shortcomings in work and abuse of power."

While Niyazov and Karimov may be friends again for the moment, the two, especially the Turkmen leader, are known to engage in political zig-zagging. Thus, experts in both countries are cautious when evaluating the potential impact of the thaw.

At the Bukhara summit, both Niyazov and Karimov pledged to take steps to boost trade. Niyazov predicted that Turkmenistan would be "ready within four to five months to open border trade outlets and markets to sell petrol and liquefied natural gas at international prices." One way to measure Niyazov's and Karimov's commitment to improved bilateral relations will be to see how the two follow through on their trade pledges.