EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Presidential Campaign Concludes in Kazakhstan

EURASIA INSIGHT

PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN CONCLUDES IN KAZAKHSTAN
Sarah Miller-Davenport: 12/02/05

Although President Nursultan Nazarbayev appears headed toward certain re-election, authorities in Kazakhstan are taking no chances.

There is little doubt concerning the voting results, as Nazarbayev seems set to trounce his four challengers and secure another seven-year term. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. At the same time rumors have swirled in Kazakhstan’s major cities, including Almaty and Astana, about possible disorder either right before, or just after election day. Such rumors have been fueled in part by the recent mysterious death of former prominent opposition figure, Zamenbek Nurkadilov. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Authorities have ruled Nurkadilov’s death a suicide, while friends and relatives insist that he was murdered.

As campaigning officially ended on December 2, Almaty Mayor Imangali Tasmagambetov acted to reassure Kazakhstanis that the voting would not provoke instability. "There are no grounds for such rumors," Tasmagambetov told journalists. "We will ensure complete order."

As part of the government’s efforts to bolster security, Kazakhstani authorities have instituted stricter border-crossing procedures on November 29, the Kazinform news agency reported. Along Kazakhstan’s frontier with Kyrgyzstan, dozens of merchants were denied entry "to prevent the possible penetration into Kazakhstan of unwanted elements."

Some opposition leaders have suggested that they may try to organize protests, but they stress that their demonstrations will be peaceful. Authorities are sure to take a dim view of any such protest effort, given the recent examples of Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. In all three countries, election-related protests eventually forced incumbent leaders from power.

Nazarbayev and his political allies have stressed that the presidential election will Kazakhstan’s freest and fairest to date. During a December 2 meeting with British election monitors, Kazakhstan’s Central Election Commission chief, Onalsyn Zhumabekov claimed that the just-concluded campaign was held in "a state of free competition.’

Representatives of the leading opposition movement For a Fair Kazakhstan bitterly dispute the contention that campaign was fair. They emphasize that Kazakhstani television channels devoted the overwhelming amount of their election coverage to Nazarbayev.

The international advocacy group Reporters Without Borders sent Nazarbayev a letter on December 2 expressing concerns about Kazakhstan’s media environment. "The independent press is subject to constant harassment by the authorities, especially since the start of the presidential campaign. Reporters Without Borders fears that the Kazakh press, like the foreign news media, will not have free access to information on polling day," the letter said.

During the last days of the campaign, Nazarbayev’s challengers have stepped up their personal attacks against the administration. Zharmakhan Tuyakbai, the For a Fair Kazakhstan movement’s candidate, accused Nazarbayev of plundering the country’s natural resources to enrich himself, his family and friends. Another presidential hopeful, Alikhan Baimenov, leader of a rump faction of the centrist opposition Ak Zhol Party, echoed the corruption allegations. In a televised speech November 30, Baimenov argued that a lack of political turnover in Kazakhstan might sooner or later cause severe economic damage to the country.

"We can see that the national wealth is being distributed extremely unfairly. We can see that some people are becoming increasingly wealthy, whereas millions [of Kazakhstanis] are thinking how to survive," Baimenov said. "We can see that the authorities have started to confuse stability with stagnation."

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