Turkey May Move Closer to Washington in Fighting Terror

Turkey cannot remain the nation it was before terrorist suicide bombings in November killed 53 people. Some analysts expect Turkey will opt to tighten security at the expense of human rights, even if such action means diminishing the country's chances of joining the European Union.

Reports surfaced December 1 that two men arrested on suspicion of plotting the November attacks had met with Ayman al-Zawahiri, an Egyptian known as a top al Qaeda operative. Such news, if confirmed, deepens the dilemma facing Turkey. A government anti-terrorism strategy that relies on tighter security could cause a rise in religious and social pressure in Turkey, which is the world's foremost secular Islamic state.

While the country mourned those killed in the November attacks, officials vowed to escalate the war on terror. Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul told CNN to expect a firm response. "Turkey will certainly not bow to terror," he said. "We hope this is the beginning of a new era in fighting terrorism globally." Meanwhile, citizens -- who have lived through decades of domestic terrorism and violence – have voiced apprehension.

In the near future, Turkey may embrace the Bush administration's bellicose rhetoric, even if this requires soft-pedaling the campaign to join the European Union . The thorny barriers to EU membership that Turkey must clear -- firming up the rule of law, prioritizing human rights, and settling the dispute with Greece over Cyprus -- may be hard to square with efforts to track down, punish and bar terrorist organizations. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Ahmet K. Han, an international relations expert at Istanbul Bilgi University's Graduate School of Social Sciences, expects decisive action to start with improving the capabilities of security services. He told EurasiaNet that the government will seek to improve security forces' ability to track shadowy terror networks. That, he said, would involve sharing intelligence with the United States, the United Kingdom and Israel.

It might also distance Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan from the European Union. "The Turkish military and security establishment is suspicious of the EU's reluctance to take tough measures against al Qaeda and its networks," Han said. He predicted that Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) could undergo wrenching changes in executing this "hard job."

Han predicts that Turkey's "infamous