As the campaign for Iran's local council elections enters the final stage, reformist hopes for a comeback victory are growing. Local observers say the election's outcome could hinge on the ability of conservative forces to present a united front.
The local elections are scheduled for December 15. On the same day, voters will also cast ballots for a new Assembly of Experts, which has oversight responsibility for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Within the broad scheme of Iranian politics, local councils wield relatively little power. But, as political analysts point out, incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, as well as his predecessor, Mohammad Khatami, used the local councils as a springboard to power. Thus, the outcome of the local vote could have important ramifications for the course of national politics.
The last local elections in 2003 marked the beginning of the end of the reformists' hold on power. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In this election, reformists seek to turn the tables on conservatives, who now enjoy a stranglehold on the executive and legislative branches of government, as well as the judiciary.
The odds are stacked against a reformist victory. The Council of Guardians a hardliner-dominated, unelected state institution responsible for vetting candidates disqualified a large number of reformist and independent candidates. Still, countless independents whose political leanings are largely unknown have managed to slip through the Council of Guardians' filters.
Reformists are focusing their efforts on gaining control of Tehran's City Council. To boost their chances, four reform-minded political organizations have engaged in unprecedented cooperation, and have even reached out to pragmatists, led by Aliakbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Together, they have developed a joint 15-candidate list for the Tehran vote. It is hoped that the unified slate will energize the reformists' electoral base, which has grown increasingly apathetic in recent years.
To stand a chance of winning in Tehran and elsewhere, the reformists need a high turnout from their supporters. Large numbers of reform-minded Iranians have stayed away from the polls in recent elections after becoming disillusioned with the political process.
Copying tactics employed by hardliners in the last election cycle, the reformist slate comprises politicians less known for their ideological positions than for their governmental service. These relative unknown candidates stand a better chance of attracting moderate and undecided voters, some political observers believe.
In recent days, leading reformist politicians have sounded cautiously optimistic about their electoral chances. For example, Mohammad Ali Abtahi, who served as a vice president in Khatami's reformist administration, wrote on his weblog that an electoral win was within the realm of possibility. "It seems clear that voters are re-examining their view and we will have a diminution in the boycotting camp," Abtahi wrote.
Abtahi added that a triumph in the Tehran election could enable the reformists' return to power on a national level. "It is an undisputable fact that victory in the council elections can pave the way for victories in the upcoming parliamentary and presidential election. This is the same route taken by our opponents," Abtahi said.
Meanwhile, in public comments made December 4, Khatami declared that the future belonged to the reformists. "The cry for freedom and democracy in Iran should be heard even by those who have hearing problems," Khatami said during a campaign rally.
Ahmadinejad, who served as Tehran mayor prior to winning the presidency in 2005, is no less determined to retain control of the capital's City Council. The president's neo-conservative supporters believe that victory in the Tehran election is needed to ensure a second term for Ahmadinejad.
By far the most surprising development during the campaign has been the inability of the various conservative factions to settle on a unified slate of candidates. Many observers have blamed the Ahmadinejad camp for the disunity, saying the president's supporters have not shown any willingness to compromise on points of political contention. Instead, pro-Ahmadinejad forces have insisted that other conservative factions throw their support behind a slate dominated by neo-conservatives.
In answer to what they consider to be the presidential team's dictatorial tendencies, rival conservative factions have prepared separate election lists, and have lashed out at the president in speeches and newspaper editorials. Ahmadinejad foes within the conservative ranks are starting to coalesce around a slate put together by the current Tehran mayor, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
Ahmadinejad and Ghalibaf are said to be bitter rivals. Thus, media analysts believe that the chances for conservatives to forge a unified election list are now slim.
Reformists are doing their best to widen the split among conservatives. Reformist leaders have announced, for example, that they might retain Ghalibaf as mayor, in the event that they gained control of the City Council.
Editor's note:
Kamal Nazer Yasin is a pseudonym for a freelance journalist specializing in Iranian affairs.
