EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Afghan Defense Official Looks Warily Westward

EURASIA INSIGHT

AFGHAN DEFENSE OFFICIAL LOOKS WARILY WESTWARD
Camelia Entekhabi-Fard 12/06/02

Gulbuddin, the Afghan defense official known as "Doctor" from his former job as a surgeon, is worried about developments in the Middle East. An American invasion of Iraq, he says, could hurt his country’s efforts to build a lasting peace.

Dr. Gulbuddin, chief of staff for Defense Minister Mohammed Qasim Fahim, talked with EurasiaNet in Kabul recently, while President Hamid Karzai traveled to Bonn, Germany, to mark the first anniversary of the accords that laid the foundation for Afghanistan’s reconstruction. Fahim did not join the delegation, and Gulbuddin’s mind was fixed on the future. He worried flatly about the Persian Gulf’s potential effect on Afghan reconstruction.

"If any major war or crisis flares up somewhere in the Middle East tomorrow, we in Afghanistan would stand to lose in terms of attention, aid and focus," he said in a phone interview. This lost focus, he added, could impede the international war on terrorism. The official told EurasiaNet that many al Qaeda fighters are still around biding their time. "They are saying to themselves, �the world will soon stop paying attention to Afghanistan,’ and then they can make their comeback. Right now they are hoping war in Iraq would change their fortunes."

At the Bonn conference, Karzai addressed concerns about security by announcing plans to create a 70,000-member national army. The German government also agreed to take over, with the Netherlands, the International Security Assistance Force that polices Kabul for six months. "At this new meeting, the German government tried to refocus the attention of the world back to Afghanistan again," said Gulbuddin. German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has consistently opposed military action in Iraq.

While Karzai and his administration attended the meeting in Germany, several news agencies reported on major battles between two warlords in western Afghanistan. Forces loyal to Amanullah Khan, an ethnic Pashtun, clashed with fighters working for Herat governor Ismail Khan. This battle � a similar skirmish to one that spurred American soldiers to enlist a B-52 bomber on December 1 � underscored how much trouble Karzai’s central government is having as it tries to control activity in the provinces.

The impunity of warlords in the provinces � especially in provinces like Herat, which receives a lot of trade from other countries � worries international observers and Afghan officials. Lakhdar Brahimi, the United Nations special envoy to Afghanistan, told the Bonn conference that Karzai’s government could not prove its authority without more resources. Sources in the Karzai government say that different warlords will vie for a larger presence in the future composition of the national army, and that warlords are trying to recruit fighters in order to ensure a stronger influence than other factions.

"The United States gave lots of cash to many warlords and commanders during the war with the Taliban and al Qaeda," a government official told EurasiaNet. "Now they have lots of money to pay their own fighters, but at this moment, the government is unable to pay its own people. Many have to be content in receiving food rations and other benefits. At the same time, the local governors are flush with cash. They have enough money to pay their private army to keep them happy."

High-ranking officials in the Afghan government have told EurasiaNet that a matter of policy, rather than economics, is also blocking the formation of a national army. Fahim and Karzai, they say, differ sharply over who can join the new army. Karzai reportedly thinks that most of the mujaheddin, soldiers who resisted Soviet invaders in the 1980s, are not educated enough or lack the requisite reputation to join, while Fahim reportedly believes that most veterans have the right to serve in a national army. The United States has not spelled out a preference on this issue, though it will play the lead in training and supporting the new army. Some note that Fahim is one of the few Afghan officials who has not officially visited the United States, and claim that Americans have canceled scheduled visits a few times in the past. At a time when Afghans worry about losing American attention, such signals can cause serious concern.

Editor�s Note: Camelia Entekhabi-Fard is a freelance journalist specializing in Afghan and Iranian affairs.

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