resh UN Resolution on Abkhazia Fails to Generate Optimism

Restrictions were imposed on Azerbaijan in October 1992 during the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia and have proven highly controversial. In Article 907, an amendment to the Freedom Support Act--which provides aid for the 15 former Soviet republics--the United States declared that government assistance “under this or any other act may not be provided to the government of Azerbaijan until the president determines, and so reports to the Congress, that the government of Azerbaijan is taking demonstrable steps to cease all blockades and other offensive uses of force against Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh."

Azerbaijan has always argued that Article 907 was unjustified and falsely portrayed the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian-dominated enclave in Azerbaijan that fought for and won de facto independence from Baku in the early 1990s. Since a ceasefire in 1994, the OSCE has been trying to broker a peace through the Minsk Group, which includes representatives of the United States, Russia, and France.

Since the terrorist attacks of 11 September, there have been increasing calls in Washington for Article 907 to be canceled or waived, both in recognition of the military and intelligence support that Baku has provided the U.S. anti-terrorist campaign and in an effort to deepen cooperation. In October 2001, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell wrote to Congress recommending that the amendment be repealed, and on 19 December 2001, a committee drawn from both houses of Congress gave U.S. President George W. Bush the right to waive the ban on aid for one year.

The U.S. Embassy in Baku expects American aid to Azerbaijan to total $50 million in 2002, with some of the money being spent on shoring up the country's borders and on anti-terrorism efforts. Vilayat Guliyev, Azerbaijan's foreign minister, said that he expected oil pipeline security, Azeri military officer training, and anti-drug efforts to be on the agenda.

The move by the United States, while partially relieving a constant irritant for Azerbaijan, has not assuaged everyone. Aid to Armenia, at $90 million annually, is substantially higher, and Georgia also receives more. Former Azeri Foreign Minister Tofik Zulfugarov argued that the waiver “has not balanced the situation in the region, primarily because the victim of aggression, Azerbaijan, gets less aid than the aggressor, Armenia.”

The lifting of the amendment, though temporary, has been a worry in Yerevan for months. However, reactions in the Armenian press, while negative, have so far been relatively muted. That may be because one of the terms of the aid to Azerbaijan--in addition to an ongoing commitment to the battle against “international terrorism”--is that Baku will not use force against Armenia or hinder a peaceful settlement to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

When the possibility that the amendment might be lifted or waived first reemerged in the autumn, Armenian President Robert Kocharian wrote to Bush to express his concern, arguing that a repeal or waiver would damage the efforts of the Minsk Group in Nagorno-Karabakh and would be perceived as "rewarding" Azerbaijan--and as acknowledgment that Azerbaijan had made a greater contribution than Armenia to the international anti-terrorism campaign. Referring to media reports linking Azerbaijan with Saudi-born terrorist Osama bin Laden, Kocharian also argued that it would be interpreted as rewarding "a country which in fact harbors terrorists."

Regional experts generally appear to believe, however, that the waiver will help stabilize the situation in the southern Caucasus and help to make Azerbaijan a freer and more democratic state.