Armenia: A First-Round Victory for Kocharian?

While opinion polls suggest that somewhere between 80 and 90 percent of the population will turn out, the election campaign has been marked by a sense of disillusion and marred by persistent allegations of violations. These include the decision by the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) to prevent a leading challenger from standing. Raffi Hovannisian, Armenia's first post-Soviet foreign minister, was ruled out on the grounds that he had not been an Armenian citizen for 10 years.

Opinion polls, which are not supposed to be published within seven days of the elections, show that around one-third of the population remains undecided. Lusik Avagian, a Yerevan pensioner, voiced a common perception when she said, "All of [the candidates] are the same, all of them want to have a chair, and none care about the people."

This has not, though, been the kind of reaction heard often on public television or even the main private television stations. The standard from those questioned has been that they will vote for Kocharian, an answer so familiar that it has become the butt of jokes. The jokes also reflect a pervasive doubt about the fairness of the elections.

The number of swing votes could still deny Kocharian – who, most opinion polls suggest, enjoys the support of roughly one-third of the electorate – a first-round victory. The chances of a run-off being held on 5 March have also risen thanks to the decision of a presidential candidate, former Prime Minister Aram Sarkisian, to drop out and urge his supporters to vote for Stepan Demirchian. Demirchian also has the backing of Hovannisian.

Demirchian, who had just under 10 percent of the vote in the last polls and is vying for second place with Artashes Geghamian, could therefore emerge as the opposition's main hope of unseating Kocharian.

Demirchian, who heads a large factory outside Yerevan, is relatively new to politics, but, as the son of the leader of Soviet Armenia between 1974 and 1988, enjoys huge name recognition. He could also tap into a deep seam of discontent with Kocharian, heightened by allegations that the president may in some way have been involved in a massacre in parliament in 1999 that left nine people dead. Among the victims was Demirchian's father, who at the time was the parliamentary speaker.

The allegations gained extra play ahead of the elections after the murder in late December of Tigran Naghdalian, the chairman of the Board of Directors of Armenian Public Television and Radio. There has been speculation from opposition sources that Naghdalian had been about to reveal details about the 1999 shootings that might have implicated Kocharian.

Alexander Iskandarian of the Caucasus Media Institute believes that Demirchian is "trying to position himself" in the campaign by becoming "a symbol of the myth about the era of his father." Iskandarian characterizes Demirchian's election campaign as "de-ideological in an emphasized way."

"Demirchian's being his father's son is one of his merits," agrees Styopa Safaryan, an analyst at the Armenian Center for National and International Research (ACNIS). However, it is not his only merit, in Safaryan's view. The large part of Armenian society that supports Demirchian "cannot be deceived" by the value of the family name alone.

Outside the Kocharian camp, views on the chances of a run-off range from absolute conviction on the part of Vazgen Manukian, one of the candidates, to less than fifty-fifty. Iskandarian predicts that "Kocharian will have over 50 percent of the vote, about 55 to 59 percent."

The winner could harvest further electoral advantages, as parliamentary elections are due to be held on 25 May.

The Contenders and the Contest

Although two presidential candidates have dropped out and Hovannisian was ruled out, there are still nine names on the ticket. Artashes Geghamian, the last Soviet mayor of Yerevan, is the other leading challenger.

The opposition's inability to unite has been a bone of contention throughout the campaign, with critics saying that this will reduce the chances of anyone removing Kocharian.

However, some argue that the number of candidates may, paradoxically, increase the chances of the elections going into a second round. Safaryan believes that having so many candidates will "make the process of falsifying the vote rather difficult" at local polling stations. Iskandarian also argued that a second round would leave the authorities with "less control over the elections and a little bit more risk," and that there would be "a few more technical possibilities for violations."

This comment, while revealing a deep-seated lack of trust in the fairness of Armenian elections, also reflects concern over the conduct of this particular campaign. There have been a wide range of incidents, including the knifing on 4 February of Aram Karapetian, a member of parliament out on the campaign trail for one of the candidates. Armenian police hinted in a statement that Karapetian himself provoked the attack by firing a handgun several times. Under Armenian law, parliamentary deputies are allowed to carry handguns for self-defense.

Karapetian himself was quick to say that Kocharian was behind the attack.

Heckling was so noisy at another rally that the meeting had to be ended early. Again, Kocharian's government was blamed.

Accusations of violations have also come from independent monitors. The largest monitoring group, The Choice is Yours, on 14 February accused Kocharian's campaign managers of violations, including asking ministers to issue instructions to local governments aimed at securing his victory.

Some government pressure has been open, with Justice Minister David Harutiunian urging teachers and parents of university students to persuade them to vote for Kocharian. According to an unnamed source quoted by RFE/FL, Harutiunian implied that Kocharian's defeat would raise the chances of renewed conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Speaking to TOL, a student at Yerevan State Medical University, who asked not to be identified, confirmed suspicions that these exhortations had been translated into overt pressure. She said that students had been taken to Kocharian rallies during school hours and that staff members had been urging students to vote for Kocharian.

On a related note, Hovannisian's exclusion has continued to reverberate through the campaign. Six rivals of Kocharian (and, if he had been permitted entry, of Hovannisian) have challenged Kocharian's own right to stand in elections, arguing that he too has not been an Armenian citizen for 10 years or a permanent resident in the country. Kocharian settled in Armenia in March 1997 when he became prime minister; before that he had been president of the disputed and self-declared republic of Nagorno-Karabakh. The case was dismissed.

The Closing Stages

The more general concern is that the president has used his control of the state apparatus to unfairly boost his campaign and to minimize the space given to his opponents. One of the clearest examples of state resources being used is that of Kocharian's campaign headquarters, which have been set up in the state-funded Academy of Sciences opposite the presidential palace. The building is now festooned with a huge banner for the president.

The Choice is Yours has also criticized what it considers biased television coverage of the campaign. Iskandarian of the Caucasus Media Institute agrees, saying that Kocharian has been given more airtime than allowed, while the press has mainly tracked Kocharian's campaign. Analyst Safaryan even talks of "blackmail" against the media by the authorities.

With just hours to go before the elections, the main question now is how to swing the vote, fairly or unfairly. The international community is trying to ensure that the elections will have greater transparency by sending 2,000 transparent ballot boxes. In addition, the US government has promised to provide $1 million in additional funding for the CEC and local electoral boards.

On the stump, the main factor now may be how well the campaign slogans stick, if, as Safaryan believes, "most voters do not expect manifestos, cannot see them, or simply do not want to listen to them because they are already tired of words." He believes that in this area Demirchian may well have the edge. He criticizes Kocharian's slogan – "Let's Work Together" – for not saying what Armenians should be working together for. Geghamian's slogan "Let's Save the Country" has similar weaknesses as, at least in Safaryan's view, it does not make clear from whom or what the country should be saved. In contrast, Demirchian's slogan – "Justice and Dignity" – has a clearer aim and a more unifying effect.