Uzbekistan: Is The Country Headed For Regime Change?

Is the regime of Uzbek President Islam Karimov heading toward a violent end?

Given the Uzbek leader's tight grip on power, such a prediction would seem to be bold, if not downright brash.

Yet that is precisely what the essay this week in "Jane's" -- along with some Western analysts -- is predicting following last month's unrest in Andijon.

Filip Noubel is the Central Asia program director for the London-based Institute for War and Peace Reporting. He spoke with RFE/RL today, a day after Karimov was in Moscow to visit Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"There is a lot of warning going on in Andijon: people are still being arrested, relatives of victims, a lot of journalists and human rights activists have been harassed. So obviously, the regime is not looking at any kind of compromise. And Karimov's trip to Moscow and Putin's declarations are a clear indication that it's not going toward any form of compromise. On the other hand, the people of Uzbekistan do not want to put up with this system any more. So really the only alternative is actually very strong confrontation," Noubel said.

During his Moscow visit, Karimov said the Andijon unrest was planned and financed from abroad. Putin backed that position.

The unsigned "Jane's" essay rejects the idea that the events in Andijon were planned abroad or involved Islamic militants. It says the events were the climax of months of pent-up frustrations and nationwide protests. "There is probably nothing beyond socio-economic conditions that connects the various manifestations of stability," the piece says.

It goes on to state that "it is likely that the country is now beyond a point where the government can control unrest using violence, although this will not stop it trying."

Karimov's regime currently has unchallenged control of the country's security forces, which include an extensive intelligence service. Opposition groups have yet to produce a unifying leader and are divided between parties advocating peaceful change and armed militant groups.

Analysts such as Noubel interviewed by RFE/RL largely agreed that Uzbekistan is fast approaching a major crisis. But not all of them appeared to agree that Karimov's regime is necessarily heading toward a violent end.

Alain Deletroz is vice president of the International Crisis Group, an organization that works on conflict prevention. In an interview with RFE/RL's Uzbek Service, Deletroz rejected the idea that the unrest in Uzbekistan has anything to do with plots from abroad.

Deletroz said a possible way for Karimov to avoid further bloodshed and retain power as well is to allow modest economic and political reforms.

"What the U.S. and the Russians can do and should do is push Mr Karimov into a corner and tell him,