General Musharraf retains significant control over his government, and has benefited from a flurry of high level diplomacy backed by removal of sanctions and stepped up international aid packages. Musharraf has been effective at keeping levels of organized grass-roots dissent to a minimum, through strategically placing leaders under house arrest and moving quickly to disband groups when they became apparent. Nonetheless, support for al Qaeda and the Taliban remains high throughout Pakistan, not only among refugees and Islamic militants, but also among the military and security services.
Thus far, the danger to Musharraf comes primarily from within his government. Significant numbers of Musharraf's "security wing" have themselves received funding from bin Laden and maintain close ties with the leadership of the Taliban. Eurasia Group sources link Abdul Haq's capture and death to members of Pakistani intelligence working in concert with the Taliban. Opportunistic members of Musharraf's security wing could bolt from the government - the most dangerous of likely scenarios presently at play in Islamabad.
