Turkey: Taking a Go-Slow Approach in the Caucasus and Central Asia

Turkey is pursuing a go-slow diplomatic line in the Caucasus and Central Asia, stressing a "complementary" policy, in which Ankara strives to retain its strong strategic relationship with the United States and European Union while at the same time cultivating wider ties with Russia.

Vahit Erdem, the head of the Turkish delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, outlined Turkey's strategic priorities during a recent visit to Washington. Turkey is intent on engaging countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia, many of which have populations with close cultural connections to Turks, as well as other countries in the broader Middle East, Erdem said.

Turkey is not as diplomatically active in the regions as some Western countries because Ankara believes the former Soviet states can't be forced to quickly reorient themselves away from Russia. "Their economies are very integrated with, dependent on Russia. So it's not easy for them to diversify in a short time," he said. So Turkey concentrates instead on a "soft approach" based on low-level commercial, cultural and educational programs in the former Soviet Union, to gain influence and make personal ties. That way, "gradually those countries will increase their relationship with Turkey," Erdem said.

"It's not our business to force them to change their regime, but over time they will be more transparent and more democratic in the future, I hope, and as they become more democratic they will get closer to the West," he said. "Turkey's role, especially in the Central Asian and Caucasus countries, is to help them get closer to the West."

This goal requires Turkey to maintain its good relations with the West, including by pushing for European Union membership. "As part of the West, we have something to offer those countries [in the former Soviet Union]. In that case we can be successful -- otherwise Turkey might be too weak against Russia."

"The main axis of our foreign policy will not change," added Erdem, who was referring to Turkey's strong strategic ties to the United States and EU via its North Atlantic Treaty Organization membership.

It's unlikely that Turkey would ever be in position to become a strategic partner of Russia's due to Ankara's desire to gain influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia, Erdem said. But, he added, that fact doesn't preclude expanded commercial ties with the Kremlin. Russia recently became Turkey's largest trading partner, he pointed out. Erdem voiced understanding for Russia's position on the potential expansion of NATO into Georgia and Ukraine, as well as for Moscow's concern over US plans to build missile defense systems in Poland and the Czech Republic. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

While Russia used disproportionate force in the war with Georgia, Georgia was also to blame, and NATO shares some responsibility, he said. "I think we provoked Russia a little bit, the United States and NATO did," he said. "We encouraged Saakashvili -- Georgia thought NATO would support them and it didn't happen."

While Turkey believed that NATO should have offered a Membership Action Plan to Georgia at this year's Bucharest summit, "now it's become much more difficult" to bring Georgia into NATO, Erdem said. Officials in Ankara also believed even after the war between Georgia and Russia that NATO-Russia ties should have been maintained. Those ties were cut as a result of the war, but were reinstated in December, during a NATO ministerial meeting in Brussels. "If we close dialogue with Russia, Russian influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia will only grow," Erdem said.

Erdem made his comments during a mid-December presentation, titled Turkey and NATO: in the Caucasus, Central Asia and Afghanistan, which was hosted by the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute in Washington, DC.