Kyrgyzstan: Local Opinion Diverges on Fate of American Air Base at Manas

The circumstances directly surrounding the base-closure announcement are a cause for suspicion. President Kurmanbek Bakiyev proclaimed his intention to shut the Manas base on February 3 while on a visit to Moscow. Seated next to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, the Kyrgyz leader revealed the plan immediately after accepting over $2 billion in Russian aid.

That fact has prompted many in Bishkek to question whether Bakiyev was bought by Moscow. Most agree that Russia pressured Bakiyev to close the base, though few are certain it is a done deal. Some are calling the early February events embarrassing for the country, while others say it's high time the Americans left.

Bakiyev cited broad public opposition to the American base as one of the central motivations for issuing his call to close the base. But attitudes in Bishkek, at least, do not appear so unified behind the idea of seeing American forces depart from the Central Asian nation.

The base has long been the subject of critical media coverage in Kyrgyzstan, especially following the shooting death there of a Kyrgyz truck driver by a US sentry in December 2006. That, and media reports of fuel jettisoning -- exaggerated according to a military spokesman -- have given rise to popular anger in Kyrgyzstan.

A local university professor, who asked not to be identified, described the slow turn of public opinion over the past few years. The media "think of America as the new imperial power looking down their nose and not treating Kyrgyz as equals," she said, blaming the media for exaggeration, but also expressing chagrin with the way some American contractors from the base are purported to behave. "People here do not view the relationship as a partnership," she added.

Indeed, on a quiet and spring-like day recently at Bishkek's Osh Bazaar, opinions seemed to tilt toward Russia.

"Maybe it will be bad for [the Americans], but we don't need their bases here. Russia will help us," said Almaz Beisheev, 35, a taxi driver. Asked if he supported Bakiyev's decision and the proposal, announced in Moscow, to station Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) troops here, he was unequivocal. "I support [the president's] decision, because why do we need Americans from far away, when Russia is helping us here?" He added, "Russia and Kyrgyzstan always have been partners and I want that to continue. I 100-percent support the existence of CSTO troops here, rather than Americans."

He is not alone. Larisa Van, 50, a fish seller, also expressed a desire to see ties with Russia expand. "I think the president has reasons for such a decision, which is Russian financial help. Russia is our big brother . . . and America is far away." She also favors the deployment of CSTO troops in Kyrgyzstan, "because they are our brothers -- Kazakhs and Russians -- we have to be friendly with our neighbors."

But Janibek Omurov, 41, a driver sitting in the sun with friends at the bazaar, sees the base as an important hub for anti-terrorist operations and wants the Americans to stay. "I think it would be better if [the Kyrgyz and American governments] negotiate and just keep the base. It was meant for anti-terrorist activities, and [the Americans] are paying money for it," he said, noting that Islamic militants have been active in southern Kyrgyzstan in the past. Ultimately, he'd be satisfied, if the United States simply shelled out more money for leasing the base.

"I don't see any harm from this base," added 44-year-old Jumakan Murzabekova who sells dried fruits and nuts. She hopes Manas will stay. "They employ a lot of people, paying the rent for their location." She's doubtful that the presence of more Russian troops would enhance the country's security. "The Americans have been here for eight years now and we got used to them as well. They don't bring any harm."

Many of those interviewed said they doubt that all the aid extended by Russia will reach its intended destination. Instead, a sizable portion of the assistance will probably get lost in the maze of official corruption, several locals said. Most declined to be quoted on the record on matters of corruption, but Omurov was outspoken on the issue. "Even if [the Russians] give us the money, they will give half to the country, and the rest will go into officials' pockets," he said.

Others take their leaders at face value. "I am sure Russia will give the money they promised -- they talked about it on television," said Beisheev, the taxi driver. Van agreed: "They will give the money. Medvedev is man of his word. [Prime Minister Vladimir] Putin wouldn't appoint a weak person as the president of Russia."

Elsewhere, some university students interviewed used crude analogies to describe Bakiyev's relationship with Medvedev. Without a doubt, Bakiyev's choices are limited. One analyst speculated that Bakiyev had no alternative, that in his precarious position as leader of a country suffering energy rations, a grim economic forecast, and a sliding currency, the Russians were in position to turn the screws on him had he not acquiesced to Moscow's long-voiced desire to send the Americans packing.

Meanwhile, some public figures are railing against the move. Osmonakun Ibraimov, a former secretary of state, has criticized Bakiyev's decision to close the base, expressing concern about the way the dispute has tarnished Kyrgyzstan's international image, the AKIpress news agency reported.

The move will only "spoil relations with the West," he said. And announcing the decision in Moscow was a sign of weakness. "It is worse to be a puppet in someone else's hands," than weak at home, Ibraimov said. "Even Russians themselves mocked us, and had every right to do so."

Russia will eventually improve its ties to the West, he speculated, at the expense of Kyrgyzstan: "It is only we, the Kyrgyz people, who will become a laughing stock."