EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Kyrgyzstan: Fate of US Base for Afghan War Could Be up in the Air until April

EURASIA INSIGHT

KYRGYZSTAN: FATE OF US BASE FOR AFGHAN WAR COULD BE UP IN THE AIR UNTIL APRIL
Arslan Mamatov 2/11/09

A vote determining the fate of an American air base in Kyrgyzstan may not take place until April, Kyrgyz legislators told EurasiaNet on February 11. Some observers say President Kurmanbek Bakiyev is pressing for a delay in order to make one last effort at squeezing better lease terms out of the United States. Other experts suggest Bakiyev is hedging so that he has leverage to make sure Russia follows through on its economic assistance commitments.

"The debate on the US airbase is not on [parliament’s] agenda this week, nor next week," the Social Democratic Party leader, Baktybek Beshimov, said.

Melis Erjigitov of the parliament’s press service confirmed the Manas base closure bill is not on parliament’s agenda for February. The government submitted the bill earlier in February. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Erjigitov’s office also confirmed that deputies plan on taking a recess for most of March. If current plans hold, a Manas bill vote could not happen until April at the earliest.

The Communist Party leader, Iskhak Masaliyev, who supports closing the base, also confirmed that parliament would not decide the issue anytime soon. It is a technical problem, he explained.

"We have agreements [on the use of Manas] with 13 countries. The Kyrgyz government introduced to parliament a dénouement bill only with the United States. This is not right. Two days ago, the government promised to introduce the bill with the other countries in the nearest future. There is nothing to do with politics here; it is merely a normal procedure," Masaliyev told EurasiaNet.

Under the constitution, all three parties represented in parliament must discuss the measure before a vote can be taken. Though the Defense Committee approved it already, the Social Democrats postponed their discussion because the presenter, Minister of Foreign Affairs Kadyrbek Sarbayev, was unable to attend.

There are no dates yet for the other two factions -- the Communist Party and the governing Ak-Zhol Party -- to discuss the bill.

With the pro-presidential Ak-Zhol Party holding a commanding majority in parliament, it is difficult to believe technicalities are behind the delay, opposition politicians say. Within days of the president’s Moscow visit, parliament managed to ratify three other agreements with Russia: a grant and loan package totaling $450 million, the write-off of $193 million in debt, and $1.7 billion of Russian investment into the Kambarata-1 hydroelectric project. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Some believe the president is deliberately postponing a vote until the Kremlin shows Bishkek the money. Beshimov, the Social Democratic leader, described the delay as collateral. "At the start of April, the Russians are to transfer $450 million [to Kyrgyzstan under an agreement already passed]," Beshimov told EurasiaNet. "But with the US airbase dénouement they [government leaders] are not in a hurry. Why? In April the government will see if Russians transfers the money or not."

Others think Bakiyev is waiting to see how politics plays out this spring. All winter, opposition parties have threatened rallies for March and April. Bakiyev, then, may be waiting to see if he can call on Russia in a time of need.

If the president is trying to obtain more money out of the United States, he is nevertheless still continuing to pin the blame on Washington for the base closure initiative. During a news conference February 11, he faulted the United States for "ignoring our concerns."

"How long were they going to ignore us? Kyrgyzstan is an independent, sovereign state, which should be respected," he said, according to a transcript distributed by the 24.kg news agency.

Speaking at the Pentagon on February 10, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the United States remained interested in staying at the base, and hinted that a revised agreement could be reached. But he emphasized that the United States was not desperate to keep Manas.

"Manas is important, but not irreplaceable," Gates said, according to a Defense Department transcript of his comments. "We are looking at alternatives. We have not foreclosed the possibility that Manas would remain open. We’re looking at whether, given the importance that Manas plays and the likely growing importance of Manas, whether there is something we ought to do differently in terms of compensation."

Beshimov is vexed with how Bakiyev has handled the base issue. In January, the Kyrgyz government gave assurances to the visiting US Central Command chief, Gen. David Petraeus, that US forces would stay at Manas. But less than two weeks later, Bakiyev shifted his position. "Now the United States and NATO will not negotiate with us seriously. Most probably they will turn to Moscow to discuss Manas’ future," the Social Democratic Party chief said.

Editor's Note: Arlsan Mamatov is the pseudonym for a Kyrgyz journalist.

The Central Eurasia Project aims, through its website, meetings, papers, and grants, to foster a more informed debate about the social, political and economic developments of the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is a program of the Open Society Institute-New York. The Open Society Institute-New York is a private operating and grantmaking foundation that promotes the development of open societies around the world by supporting educational, social, and legal reform, and by encouraging alternative approaches to complex and controversial issues.

The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily represent the position of the Open Society Institute and are the sole responsibility of the author or authors.