Azerbaijan: Air Force Chief Assassinated in Baku, Search for Suspects Ongoing

Azerbaijan's air force commander was shot and killed as he left his home on the morning of February 11, prompting a search by analysts and ordinary Azerbaijanis alike to identify a cause and a culprit.

Lt-Gen. Rail Rzayev, the head of Azerbaijan's Air Force and Anti-Aircraft Defense Force, was shot in the head as he was sitting in a Mercedes in front of his Baku apartment building. Doctors at a military hospital could not save 64-year-old Rzayev's life, the Interior Ministry announced.

Few details about the case are being made public. Several hours after the assault, a source in the Military Prosecutor's Office, which is handling the investigation into Rzayev's death, told EurasiaNet that the investigation was so far limited to searches of the area in question and to attempts to locate the assailant.

Rzayev's driver, who was not injured, is the only witness identified by police. After the general entered his car, the vehicle moved about 700 to 800 meters before stopping in front of some trash cans where Rzayev was shot, local news agencies quoted police as saying. Neighbors did not report hearing the shot.

Chief of Staff Colonel-General Nijmedin Sadykhov told Lider TV that a single shot had been fired at the air force commander. Security cameras near Rzayev's residence could provide further information, he added. The commander's car had been "under surveillance for several days," Sadykhov said. He did not elaborate.

President Ilham Aliyev issued a statement late on February 11 condemning the murder, and vowed to bring the culprits to justice. "The Azerbaijani government is very capable, and for whatever criminal act carried out against us -- against our state and its peaceful population -- the guilty parties must answer, and they will answer," the presidential statement said.

All potential motives for the crime, "including political ones, will be considered," said the Military Prosecutor's Office source, who asked not to be identified.

Rzayev had served as Azerbaijan's air force commander since 1992, after previously heading Baku's anti-aircraft defenses. In 2007, he served as the Azerbaijani representative in talks with the United States and Russia about the use of Azerbaijan's Gabala radar station. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Rzayev's murder, the first such killing of a top Azerbaijani military officer, provoked widespread shock inside Azerbaijan. No single, clear motive for the crime has been identified.

Military expert Haji Asadov, a former defense ministry official, said that Lt. Gen. Rzayev was well-respected within Azerbaijan's armed forces. "I knew him as a professional military man and a good manager who had respect in the army. . . . The air force and the anti-aircraft defense forces are among the most modern and well-managed arms of the Azerbaijani armed forces," Asadov said. Despite recently undergoing heart surgery, Rzayev retained his post thanks in large part to that reputation, Asadov added.

A veteran of the Nagorno-Karabakh War with Armenia, Rzayev had spent his entire 32-year military career in various senior anti-aircraft defense posts in Azerbaijan after graduating from the Vladikavkaz missile command academy in 1966.

Most recently, in December 2008, Rzayev attracted media attention after reports surfaced that Azerbaijani military planes had forced a helicopter carrying Minister of Emergency Situations Kamaladdin Heydarov to land. No official explanations were issued for the incident. Azerbaijani mainstream media outlets, however, reported that Heydarov, arguably the government's most influential minister, had failed to inform the Anti-Aircraft Defense Forces about his flight, allegedly to his villa in the central Gabala region.

Baku-based political analysts were measured in commenting on possible reasons for the murder. Evaluations largely focus on possible connections with the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, or on outside attempts to destabilize Azerbaijan.

Lt. Gen. Rzayev was among those Azerbaijani generals who strongly opposed any compromise resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia, noted Rauf Mirgadirov, political columnist for the Russian-language daily Zerkalo (The Mirror).

"If such a crime had happened one and a half to two years ago, I would pay more attention to [Rzayev's] business links, or to [infighting] within the Defense Ministry," said Mirgadirov. In 2004, several newspapers reported that the anti-aircraft defense forces commander was using military transport planes to import business cargo from Dubai and China, among other locations. No official response was ever given.

"But now we hear a lot of talk about Armenia and Azerbaijan soon signing some documents for the Karabakh conflict's resolution, which, of course, cause dissatisfaction among part of the [military] top brass," Mirgadirov continued.

While acknowledging that Rzayev was opposed to a Karabakh compromise, Asadov dismissed the idea of there being any possible "Armenian handprint" on the crime. "The Armenians do not have any reason to kill the air force commander," he said. "Rzayev participated in the Karabakh war, but he was not involved in murders of Armenian leaders or something like that. And there are no other reasons for Armenians to commit such a crime."

To many Azerbaijanis, the Kremlin is invariably a suspect in such crimes. Some experts noted that a major diplomatic scandal occurred recently, stemming from Azerbaijani government allegations that Moscow transferred a wide range of military vehicles and materiel to Armenia from the Russian base at Gyumri in northern Armenia. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive]. A tit-for-tat scandal that forces Azerbaijanis to look inward could be Moscow's way of deflecting attention from the Armenian arms-transfer allegations, Mirgadirov commented.

"[W]e should look for those countries which are interested in . . . the destabilization of the situation in Azerbaijan," said the columnist, making a not-so-veiled reference to Russia.

Rzayev was to be buried late on February 11, in keeping with Islamic burial rites.