Afghanistan: US War Effort Experiences a Beginning and a Likely End

February 19 was a topsy-turvy day for the US war effort in Afghanistan. On the down side, Kyrgyzstan's parliament voted to terminate the lease of an American air base used to support military operations in Afghanistan. On a more positive note, a supply train left Latvia bound for Afghanistan, signaling the opening of a long-anticipated and much needed northern supply route.

The northern route is designed to relieve pressure on the main supply corridor for Afghanistan via Pakistan. That route has come under increasing Taliban attack in recent months, placing a strain on US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. In addition, logistical demands on supply channels are set to increase due to the recent announcement by the Obama administration that 17,000 additional US troops will be deployed in Afghanistan in the coming months. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Airis Rikveilis, a spokesman for Latvia's Ministry of Defense, told the newspaper Bizness i Baltiya on February 18 that the shipments leaving Riga were "commercial" and "still in test mode." Sources at the Baltic Container Terminal, where the cargo train originated, say up to 700 20-foot containers could be shipped per week. A spokesperson at the US Embassy in Riga confirmed that the customer was "the Pentagon." The paper estimated the project could be worth at least $15.5 million to the Latvian economy per year. A Latvian rail official confirmed on February 19 that the cargo train had departed, the official Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported.

The cargo is set to cross Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan before entering Afghanistan. US officials reached transit agreements with all three states in recent weeks. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Separately, senior representatives from US Transportation Command, the deployment and distribution arm of the US Department of Defense, led by Read Admiral Mark Harnitchek arrived in Tajikistan this week for a five-day visit to finalize the land transport of goods across Tajikistan's 830-mile border with Afghanistan. [For additional information click here].

While the opening of the rail corridor was a cause for optimism, the likely loss of the air base at Manas, outside the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek, presents US strategic planners with a new headache. The Kyrgyz parliament vote to close the Manas base was nearly unanimous, passing by a 78-1 margin. President Kurmanbek Bakiyev has indicated that he will sign the measure into law on February 20. The United States and 11 other nations that use the base will be formally notified of the Manas lease termination promptly, Kabai Karabekov, deputy chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee and a pro-presidential party MP, told EurasiaNet.

Political analysts in Bishkek and elsewhere see a close connection between a Russian move to provide $2.15 billion in economic assistance to Kyrgyzstan, and the Kyrgyz government's sudden efforts to kick the Americans out of Manas. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Karabekov said he voted to close the base because he no longer believes a military strategy in Afghanistan could secure peace. "I think a different approach is necessary, maybe it will be economic or maybe something else, but not a military one because it's not working and has never worked in Afghanistan," he said.

The lone MP to vote against the bill was Bakyt Beshimov, the leader of the Social Democratic Party faction in parliament. He opposed the measure because the government's arguments about regional security were flawed. "I don't understand the actions of the president [Bakiyev] as they are not in our national interests at all," he said.

Beshimov added that parliament's decision will expose Kyrgyzstan to international disdain and ridicule. "Kyrgyzstan is a country that hasn't learned any lessons. Many experts will say that Kyrgyzstan is a failed state. As a young country we should be in a system of international relations, we should be stable," Beshimov said. "Whether this is the final verdict or not, we've made an incorrect and impetuous decision," he added.

As Beshimov indicated, some political experts in Bishkek and abroad, along with US diplomats, believe that the United States may still find a way to retain a presence at Manas. Political analyst Nur Omarov is among those who think that parliament's vote was not the last act in the drama. In an interview with EurasiaNet, Omarov suggested that the base would continue to function even if the United States had officially been squeezed from the stage.

"It's too early to say it's a done deal. Anything can happen. Most likely the base will stay but with a changed format, perhaps the European contingent will increase and it will become a'European base' not an American one," he said.