Armenia: Ter Petrosian to Run for Mayor of Yerevan

In a surprise move that some say could spark further political turmoil, former President Levon Ter Petrosian has announced plans to run for mayor of Yerevan in the Armenian capital's May 31 elections.

Although often described as a direct election, the poll, in fact, is an indirect vote. Under changes introduced last January, the person who heads the candidate list of the party that wins the majority of seats in Yerevan's city council will be named mayor. Ter Petrosian will head the list of city council candidates for the Armenian National Congress.

In a March 15 statement, Ter Petrosian's Armenian National Congress declared the elections "crucial for the restoration of the country's constitutional order." Previously, the president appointed Yerevan's mayor.

While Ter Petrosian, who lost Armenia's 2008 presidential vote, had earlier called for his supporters to take part in elections "at all levels," the decision came as a surprise to many. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Nonetheless, some observers termed it a smart move.

"The opposition's tactics are absolutely right," commented economist Eric Grigorian. "Many people are disappointed [by politics], but Ter Petrosian's name on the list may inspire some more hopes and people may once again find interest in participating in the election and fighting for changes in the country. It's a very clever and well-thought-out decision."

Political analyst Yervand Bozoian agrees. Ter Petrosian's participation will turn the struggle for the mayor's seat into a real political battle, rather than a low-interest administrative decision, he said.

"The authorities now will have to replace their nominee to keep the balance," Bozoian said. "Otherwise, they will lose because their present candidate is not a political figure at all."

The ruling Republican Party of Armenia is expected to place at the top of its candidate list the current mayor of Yerevan, Gagik Beglarian, a former boss of the city's Kentron district. Its coalition partner, Prosperous Armenia, is expected to tag current Minister of Health, Harutiun Kushkian. Candidate lists will be submitted to the Central Election Commission between March 17 and 22.

For now, the Republican Party avoids assessing its chances against a party list headed by Ter Petrosian, a facile orator who commands considerable street charisma.

"Making predictions is not a gratifying labor," said Republican Party spokesperson and parliamentarian Eduard Sharmazanov. "The Republican Party did a lot for Yerevan. It is well aware of the problems in the capital, and its candidate's chances are quite large." Putting Ter Petrosian on the Armenian National Congress's list "proves that it lacks human resources," he added.

The expected Republican Party chief candidate, 44-year-old Beglarian, has thrice won elections to head Kentron district; most recently, in September 2008, by a wide margin. Much controversy existed about the fairness of the vote, however.

But Ter Petrosian's spokesperson, Arman Musinian, expressed little concern about the use of dodgy tactics spoiling an opposition win.

"This is a political election and, as we have always said, we will be taking part in all political developments using all the legal means against the regime," Musinian said. "The authorities will . . . either take the people's vote into account and surrender or will once again rely on brutal, illegal means to take over another elected body."

The Republican Party, in its turn, also asserts the need for "fair, democratic" elections.

"It's in everybody's interest to have democratic and fair elections, because democracy is a competition, but what's the sense of taking part if the opposition questions the fairness of the election from the very beginning?" Sharamazanov asked.

Political analyst Bozoian notes that an opposition win could mean that "the political situation in the country will get quite complicated."

"Tensions will likely increase and will mix up the authorities' playing cards," he commented.

But President Serzh Sargsyan has given little indication of fearing such a mix-up. Local elections are a learning experience for the opposition, he stated after the disputed 2008 presidential vote.

"Let them actively participate, win and prove their worth, gain experience, and get prepared for the next parliamentary and presidential election," news outlets reported Sargsyan as saying.