Kyrgyzstan: Early Presidential Vote Declared Amid Growing Political Scandal

Kyrgzystan's Constitutional Court issued a ruling on March 19 that mandated the holding of a presidential election no later than October. The announcement came amid growing political tension in Bishkek, where the recent, mysterious death of a former top presidential aide threatens to open a rift within the governing party.

Parliament will set the election date in accordance with the court's ruling. Within hours of the ruling's announcement, members of the parliamentary Committee on Constitutional Affairs began floating the possibility of holding the election on July 23. Committee chairman Zainidin Kurmanov said that date would be debated during the next full session of parliament that is scheduled to convene March 20.

Accelerating the election process is widely seen as beneficial for the reelection chances of the incumbent, Kurmanbek Bakiyev. Given the fragmented nature of the opposition, an election held this summer would not give presidential challengers sufficient time to put an organization in place that could pose a serious threat to Bakiyev's electoral chances, local political analysts say.

The election announcement provided a distraction -- at least temporarily -- from a brewing political scandal related to the March 13 death of Medet Sadyrkulov, Bakiyev's former chief-of-staff. Sadyrkulov, along with two other men, purportedly died in an auto accident on the Bishkek-Almaty highway. But as more facts come to light, more questions are being raised about the incident. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Opposition politicians say the suspicious circumstances surrounding Sadyrkulov's death suggest that he was likely the victim of a political assassination.

Sadyrkulov, who was known as "the gray cardinal" of Kyrgyz politics, resigned as chief-of-staff in January. Opposition leaders said he had been planning to support their campaign to remove Bakiyev from office. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Roza Otunbaeva, deputy head of the Social Democratic Party, is among those who suspect foul play caused Sadyrkulov's death. "Three bodies were found in passenger seats and driver seat was empty," she said in interview with EurasiaNet. "For us [in the opposition], it says somebody drove the car to the scene and probably the passengers were [already] dead. What's more, the fuel tank was intact and the car shouldn't have burned like it did. There are many questions."

Opposition politicians say the chances that lingering questions will be answered are minimal. Some have alleged that the government is engaging in a cover-up, noting that the parliamentary commission overseeing the official investigation is packed with Bakiyev loyalists from the governing Ak Zhol Party. Meanwhile, two SDP MPs who have already expressed public concerns about the nature of Sadyrkulov's death -- Isa Omurkulov and Bakyt Beshimov -- have been excluded from parliament's investigatory panel.

Reinforcing the image that authorities are not pursuing all possible angles in the investigation, Arkady Dubnov, a prominent Russian political analyst, announced that he had yet to be contacted by Kyrgyz law-enforcement agents, despite the fact that he was perhaps the last person to talk to Sadyrkulov before his death. That conversation took place late on March 12 in Almaty.

Sadyrkulov's death appears to have caused rumblings of discontent within the pro-presidential Ak Zhol Party. Sadyrkulov reportedly had alienated several powerful factions within the party, and this was apparently a factor in prompting his resignation. Nevertheless, many party members continued to view him as a respected political figure. A well-placed source, speaking to EurasiaNet on condition of anonymity, said the mood among Ak Zhol leaders at present was "exceptionally tense."

Galina Kulikova, a member of the parliamentary commission that is investigating Sadyrkulov's death, denied that Ak Zhol was developing fissures. "But there is circumspection and fear," she admitted in an interview with EurasiaNet. "Not everyone is in a position to say 'this is not an ordinary car accident.'"

Some political analysts see the presidential election as tied to the recent announcement that Russia would be providing over $2 billion in assistance to Kyrgyzstan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"I think the president and his team knew beforehand about the constitutional court's decision about the timing of presidential elections. They've been preparing for this for some time," said Azamat Temirkulov, a professor of political science the American University in Bishkek. "The money from Moscow will initially be directed to support the economic situation in Kyrgyzstan before the election."