Georgia: Opposition Struggles to Settle on Single Protest Strategy

Less than two days before a planned mass rally in Tbilisi, Georgian opposition leaders are still not united behind a single protest strategy.

The protest, scheduled to take place on April 9, will unite 13 parties under a single cause -- calling for President Mikheil Saakashvili's resignation. Nearly every major opposition party in the country -- with the exception of the Labor Party and the parliamentary opposition -- will take part. On April 7, opposition party leaders met with foreign diplomats to share their views on the rally's motives and objectives.

The loosely aligned protest coalition is showing signs of strain. Some opposition leaders, citing security concerns, had refused to divulge the exact time or place for the April 9 demonstration. But at the April 7 meeting, leaders from several parties openly discussed the venue with foreign journalists.

The rally is expected to be held at 2 pm in front of parliament in downtown Tbilisi. In an April 7 interview with the daily Rezonansi, Eka Beselia, the head of exiled ex-Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili's Movement for a United Georgia, stated that the rally could head towards the headquarters of Georgian Public Broadcasting if the TV station fails to provide a live broadcast of the event.

There is also discord about how long the protests should last. Some opposition parties, including former Parliamentary Speaker Nino Burjanadze's Democratic Movement-United Georgia, are planning indefinite protests until Saakashvili steps down. Other groups, like the Alliance for Georgia, led by former UN Ambassador Irakli Alasania, have indicated that April 9 should be a one-time event.

Davit Usupashvili, the head of the Republican Party -- one of the three parties in the Alliance for Georgia -- told EurasiaNet that the alliance has not yet decided how long it will protest. He underscored the need for "careful analysis of the situation" and cautioned that a decision would not be made until April 10. According Alasania himself, there is still "hope" that the government will be ready for dialogue once they see the depth of rally participant's discontent.

"I hope that there's going to be chances for dialogue after the people's will [is] demonstrated," Alasania told EurasiaNet.

In April 7 comments to reporters in the Black Sea port of Poti, Saakashvili stressed that "there is no alternative to dialogue . . . even with the smallest and most radical group." Talks headed by Dmitri Shashkin, the minister for the penitentiary system, probation and legal assistance, however, have been attended only by a few civil society representatives and representatives of parliamentary opposition parties.

In what appeared to be an additional overture, Tbilisi Mayor Givi Ugulava recently stated that he believed direct elections for mayor should be held. Ugulava's comment seemed intended to address a longtime opposition complaint.

But such offers have done little or nothing to sway the opposition coalition.

Ex-Foreign Minister Salome Zourabichvili, leader of the Georgia's Way Party, hinted that an element of the opposition strategy is to induce Saakashvili into making a strategic or tactical mistake. "[I] assure you, that Saakashvili's nerves will wear out sooner than ours," she told Rezonansi newspaper in an April 7 interview.

Burjanadze shares that confidence. There is no need for the coalition to discuss backup plans if the protest fails because Saakashvili "will leave," she told EurasiaNet.

"We have different strategies [for running the protest], but he will leave," Burjanadze said.