Armenia: Turkish Foreign Minister's Visit Resolves No Questions

Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan's trip to Yerevan may have been brief, with little publicity, but it has nonetheless further fueled Armenia's ongoing debate about mending ties with Turkey.

Arriving at Yerevan's airport on April 16 for a meeting of the Organization of Black Sea Economic Cooperation, Babacan told CNN-Turk only that "[w]e want a comprehensive solution and full normalization of relations." Negotiations with Armenia will proceed "in parallel" to talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan about the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory, he said. He refrained from further comment.

Nonetheless, to judge by his interlocutors, the issue of a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement remained front and center for Babacan's meetings. During his one-day trip, the Turkish foreign minister met with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian and held separate talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Mahmud Mamadguliyev at the conference.

Sargsyan's press office stated only that the president and Babacan discussed "questions regarding the settlement of Armenian-Turkish relations."

Yet despite the recent uptick in bilateral contacts, some Yerevan analysts are skeptical that an actual deal will come about. While Armenia has not linked a reconciliation deal to any other issue, Ankara has made plain that it expects such an agreement to move in tandem with a resolution to Armenia's Nagorno-Karabakh dispute with Azerbaijan, a close Turkish ally.

At an April 8 meeting with journalists, Turkish Prime Minister Recip Tayip Erdogan expressed hope that the United Nations Security Council would recognize that Armenia had occupied Nagorno-Karabakh, and call on Armenia to withdraw its troops from the territory.

"The settlement of problems between Turkey and Armenia is possible after first solving the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict," Hurriyet newspaper reported Erdogan as saying.

Political analyst Sergei Shakariants argues that those terms imply that the Armenian-Turkish honeymoon is coming to an end, "if it has not already done so."

"Anyone willing to improve ties with a neighbor will start the dialogue without preconditions," Shakariants said. "If Turkey gets into it, but brings preconditions at the last minute, it means it has never been willing to negotiate."

Opposition Heritage Party parliamentarian Stepan Safarian believes that opening the Armenian-Turkish border in the near future is impossible given Turkey's recent remarks.

"[I]f Turkey, which itself faces the issues of Cyprus, the Armenian genocide and [disputed] territories, puts forward conditions to Armenia in favor of another country, Azerbaijan, this means that Armenian diplomacy has made serious strategic, diplomatic and tactical mistakes," Safarian argued.

During an April 14 meeting with Tehran's ethnic Armenian community, Sargsyan, a native of Nagorno-Karabakh, affirmed that the disputed territory would not be given to Azerbaijan under any circumstances.

"Sometimes suppositions and forecasts or good wishes are presented as facts. The truth is the following: We are ready to establish normal relations with Turkey without preconditions. Turkey has not been ready for it up to this day," Sargsyan said, according to the presidential press office. "Today there seem to be [the right] conditions [for us] to get out of this unacceptable situation, when two neighbors do not even have diplomatic relations."

Parliamentarian Rafik Petrosian, a senior member of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia, believes that recent agreements signed with Iran will spur Turkey to take action. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"Turkey will definitely understand that Armenia will get other opportunities to communicate with the outside world through Iran, and this will accelerate the negotiation process over Armenian-Turkish relations," said Petrosian.

Dismissing skeptics, Petrosian maintained that there has been "minor success" to date in talks with Turkey. "If the process had not been positive, Ali Babacan would not have come to Armenia," he concluded.